The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Four Years of the War in Ukraine
English Summary
Four years after Russia's invasion, the conflict has evolved into a long-term war of attrition that requires a transition from short-term aid to a generational strategy for European security. Despite significant casualties and sanctions, Russia has maintained its war effort through economic ties with China and the Global South, while Ukraine has successfully shifted toward deeper defense industrial cooperation with European partners. Experts suggest that because Russia's maximalist goals remain unchanged, Western policymakers must prepare for a multiyear struggle focused on conventional deterrence and cautious escalation management.
中文摘要
在俄羅斯入侵四年後，此場衝突已演變為長期的消耗戰，使得歐洲安全策略必須從短期援助轉向具長遠意義的世代戰略。儘管承受重大人員傷亡與國際制裁，俄羅斯仍透過與中國及全球南方的經濟聯繫維持其戰爭動能；與此同時，烏克蘭則成功深化了與歐洲夥伴的國防工業合作。專家指出，鑑於俄羅斯的極大化目標並未改變，西方政策制定者必須為長期的鬥爭做好準備，並將重點聚焦於常規威懾與謹慎的衝突升級管控。
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