The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The European Union in the New Trade Disorder
English Summary
Amid global trade fragmentation driven by US protectionism and China's export controls, the EU is proactively adapting by pursuing a 'de-risking' strategy to secure its economic future. Key evidence includes the rapid negotiation of landmark bilateral agreements (e.g., Mercosur, India, Indonesia), which go beyond tariff reduction to establish rules on critical minerals, climate, and labor rights. Strategically, this signals that the EU is solidifying its role as a major global trade hub, leveraging preferential agreements to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on external economic coercion. Policymakers should recognize that the EU's future strategy involves deepening its single market while using these strategic trade pacts to cement its influence in the new, multipolar trade order.
中文摘要
在全球貿易碎片化（主要由美國的保護主義和中國的出口管制所驅動）的背景下，歐盟正透過推動「去風險化」（de-risking）策略，主動應對並確保其經濟未來。關鍵證據包括歐盟迅速協商一系列里程碑式的雙邊協議（例如：南方共同市場、印度、印尼），這些協議的範疇已超越關稅削減，進而確立了關於關鍵礦物、氣候變遷和勞工權益等領域的規則。從戰略角度來看，這表明歐盟正鞏固其作為主要全球貿易樞紐的地位，利用這些優惠協議來分散供應鏈，並降低對外部經濟脅迫的依賴。政策制定者應認識到，歐盟的未來戰略包括深化其單一市場，同時利用這些戰略貿易夥伴關係來鞏固其在新多極貿易秩序中的影響力。
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