The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts
English Summary
China's high-tech drive has resulted in undeniable, though uneven, progress, significantly boosting its global innovation capacity and international influence. Key evidence includes China's rising Global Innovation Index ranking, surpassing the U.S. in R&D spending, and becoming a core leader in setting global mobile broadband standards. However, the analysis notes persistent weaknesses in institutional quality, advanced semiconductors, and complex manufacturing sectors like commercial aircraft. Strategically, the report advises that the U.S. should abandon a policy of consistent decoupling in favor of "calibrated coupling," while simultaneously strengthening coordination with like-minded global partners to maximize national security and economic benefits.
中文摘要
中國在高科技領域的發展動力，已帶來毋庸置疑但存在不均衡的進展，顯著提升了其全球創新能力和國際影響力。關鍵證據包括中國全球創新指數排名不斷攀升、研發支出超越美國，以及成為設定全球行動寬頻標準的核心領導者。然而，分析指出，在制度品質、先進半導體以及商用飛機等複雜製造業領域仍存在持續的弱點。從戰略角度來看，報告建議美國應放棄持續「脫鉤」的政策，轉而採取「校準耦合」的策略，同時與志同道合的全球夥伴加強協調，以最大化國家安全和經濟效益。
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