Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Ukraine’s War of Endurance
English Summary
The conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a protracted 'war of endurance,' significantly exceeding Russia's initial objectives of quick subjugation. The conflict is characterized as Europe's largest conventional war since World War II, marked by its longevity and immense human cost. This sustained nature suggests that the conflict is less about rapid military victory and more about attrition and geopolitical resilience. Policy implications necessitate a long-term strategic commitment from international partners, recognizing that the war's endurance requires sustained support across military, economic, and diplomatic fronts.
中文摘要
烏克蘭的衝突已演變為一場曠日持久的「持久戰」，其規模已遠超過俄羅斯最初追求的快速征服目標。這場衝突被視為自第二次世界大戰以來歐洲最大的常規戰爭，其特點在於其持久性與巨大的傷亡代價。這種持續的性質表明，衝突的重點已不再是快速的軍事勝利，而是消耗戰和地緣政治韌性。政策層面的啟示要求國際夥伴必須做出長期戰略承諾，認識到這場戰爭的持久性需要跨越軍事、經濟和外交等多個層面的持續支持。
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