The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
China Is Squandering a Golden Opportunity
English Summary
While US instability creates a theoretical geostrategic vacuum for China, the article argues that Beijing's ability to capitalize on this opportunity is limited. Global powers are increasingly adopting a 'hedging' strategy, seeking to reduce vulnerability to both US and Chinese influence, suggesting the competition is not zero-sum. China faces specific hurdles, including deep skepticism in Europe (due to Russia ties and trade issues) and poor returns on its soft power investments. Consequently, the global balance of power is shifting, but the primary implication is that both the US and China risk losing global influence as nations prioritize strategic balancing over alignment.
中文摘要
儘管美國的不穩定性為中國創造了理論上的地緣戰略真空，但本文認為北京利用此機遇的能力是有限的。全球大國正日益採取「對沖」（hedging）策略，試圖降低對美和中雙方影響力的脆弱性，這表明競爭並非零和博弈。中國面臨特定的障礙，包括歐洲對其抱持的深層懷疑（源於俄羅斯關係和貿易問題），以及軟實力投資的回報不佳。因此，全球的權力平衡正在轉移，但主要啟示是，隨著各國將戰略平衡置於陣營選擇之上，美中兩國都面臨失去全球影響力的風險。
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