The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Stiffening European sanctions against the Russian oil trade
English Summary
The report argues that European nations must strengthen sanctions against Russia’s 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers by mandating adequate insurance coverage through stricter regulation of flag states. This strategy aims to force vessels back into Western-regulated services, ensuring compliance with price caps and mitigating the risk of uninsured environmental disasters. Economic modeling indicates that aggressive enforcement, including insurance disclosure and flag state liability, could reduce Russian Baltic oil tax revenues by up to 14% while shifting the majority of trade to compliant vessels. To implement this, the UK and EU should coordinate on universal maritime standards and exert diplomatic and economic pressure on 'flags of convenience' to eliminate loopholes used for sanctions evasion.
中文摘要
該報告主張，歐洲國家必須透過加強對旗國的監管，並強制要求充足的保險覆蓋，以強化對俄羅斯「影子船隊」油輪的制裁。此策略旨在迫使船舶回歸受西方監管的服務，確保其遵守價格上限，並減輕未投保環境災難的風險。經濟模型顯示，包括保險披露和旗國責任在內的強力執法，可使俄羅斯波羅的海石油稅收減少高達 14%，同時將大部分貿易轉移至合規船舶。為落實此舉，英國與歐盟應就全球海事標準進行協調，並對「權宜旗」施加外交與經濟壓力，以消除用於規避制裁的漏洞。
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