Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
The Strait of Hormuz energy crisis shows the EU’s carbon pricing is the right approach
English Summary
The energy crisis stemming from the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates the profound vulnerability of relying on volatile fossil fuel imports. The analysis argues that the EU's existing carbon pricing mechanism, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), is the essential long-term solution, as it has proven effective in driving decarbonization and reducing emissions while generating revenue for clean energy investments. Policymakers must therefore strengthen the ETS and prioritize coordinated joint procurement of resources to mitigate geopolitical shocks. Ad-hoc national subsidies, conversely, risk undermining the 'polluter pays principle' and fragmenting the European market.
中文摘要
源自霍爾木茲海峽的能源危機，凸顯了過度依賴波動化石燃料進口的深層脆弱性。本分析認為，歐盟現有的碳定價機制——排放交易體系（ETS），是長期解決方案的關鍵，因為它已被證明能有效推動去碳化和減少排放量，同時為清潔能源投資創造了收入。因此，政策制定者必須加強ETS，並優先實施資源的協調性聯合採購，以緩解地緣政治衝擊。相反地，臨時性的國家補貼有損「污染者付費原則」，並可能導致歐洲市場碎片化。
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