The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
The Iran war has been an economic gift for Putin
English Summary
The conflict in Iran has provided a significant economic windfall for Russia, counteracting the negative effects of Western sanctions and physical damage from Ukrainian strikes. Soaring global energy prices, combined with temporary easing of US sanctions, have boosted Russia's oil and gas export revenues, bolstering its budget and balance of payments. Strategically, this increased revenue stream enhances Russia's capacity to sustain its war effort in Ukraine and grants Putin greater leverage in global energy negotiations, though the benefit remains contingent on Ukraine's inability to disrupt physical export volumes.
中文摘要
伊朗的衝突為俄羅斯帶來了可觀的經濟紅利，這抵消了西方制裁和烏克蘭打擊造成的實質性損害。全球能源價格飆升，加上美國制裁的暫時放寬，提升了俄羅斯的石油和天然氣出口收入，從而鞏固了其預算和國際收支。從戰略角度來看，這筆增加的收入流增強了俄羅斯維持烏克蘭戰爭的能力，並賦予普丁在全球能源談判中更大的籌碼，儘管其效益仍取決於烏克蘭無法擾亂實體出口量。
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