The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Why Are More U.S. Allies Exploring Ties with China?
English Summary
U.S. allies are increasing diplomatic and economic ties with China, driven by growing frustration and concerns over the perceived unreliability of the United States as a security and trade partner. Key evidence includes high-level visits from European and Indo-Pacific leaders, resulting in agreements focused on diversifying trade, green energy cooperation, and AI technology. Experts caution that while these moves signal a desire to 'de-risk' and reduce reliance on the U.S., the strategy is largely symbolic and lacks coordinated substance. The primary implication is that allies are adopting an 'a la carte' hedging approach, which grants China increased time and space to build geopolitical leverage with the West.
中文摘要
美國盟友正加強與中國的外交和經濟聯繫，其驅動力源於他們對美國作為安全和貿易夥伴的可靠性產生日益增長的挫敗感和擔憂。關鍵證據包括歐洲和印太地區領導人的高層訪問，促成了著重於貿易多元化、綠色能源合作和人工智慧技術的相關協議。專家警告，雖然這些舉動顯示出盟友希望「去風險化」（de-risk）並減少對美國依賴的意願，但該策略在很大程度上只是象徵性的，缺乏協調的實質內容。主要啟示是，盟友正在採行一種「點菜式」（a la carte）的對沖策略，這使得中國在與西方建立地緣政治籌碼方面獲得了更多時間和空間。
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