The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Europe’s Next War
English Summary
The current geopolitical focus of policymakers in Washington and Europe is overwhelmingly consumed by responding to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This response has necessitated the provision of massive military, economic, and humanitarian aid to prevent Ukraine’s collapse. While the immediate crisis demands immense resources, the article suggests that this singular focus may obscure the preparation for future conflicts. Policymakers must therefore look beyond the current front lines to anticipate and mitigate emerging security threats across the broader European continent.
中文摘要
當前華盛頓和歐洲政策制定者的地緣政治焦點，幾乎完全圍繞著俄羅斯對烏克蘭的全面入侵所展開的應對行動。此一應對行動要求提供大規模的軍事、經濟和人道援助，以防止烏克蘭的崩潰。儘管眼前的危機需要龐大資源，但本文指出，這種單一的焦點可能會掩蓋對未來衝突的準備工作。因此，政策制定者必須超越當前的戰線，預測並緩解整個歐洲大陸範圍內的新興安全威脅。
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