The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Real Threat to Taiwan
English Summary
The primary threat to Taiwan is not a traditional military invasion, but rather a sophisticated 'gray zone' coercion utilizing economic and logistical control, such as establishing a quarantine over maritime and air links. China is leveraging this control to restrict key exports, particularly advanced semiconductor components, thereby forcing regional compliance without triggering a full-scale conflict. Consequently, the U.S. must shift its strategic focus from preparing for military war games to developing integrated economic and diplomatic plans with allies. Deterring a severe financial and political crisis requires pre-coordinated responses to cushion market shocks and manage potential partial decoupling from China.
中文摘要
威脅台灣的首要風險並非傳統的軍事入侵，而是利用經濟和後勤控制的複雜「灰色地帶」施壓。例如，實施對海空連結的封鎖。中國正利用這種控制來限制關鍵出口，特別是先進的半導體元件，從而迫使區域遵守其要求，而無需引發全面衝突。因此，美國必須將其戰略重點從準備軍事戰備演習，轉向與盟友制定整合性的經濟和外交計畫。為預防嚴重的金融和政治危機，需要提前協調的應對措施，以緩解市場衝擊並管理潛在的與中國的部分脫鉤風險。
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