The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Is Donald Trump right on Belarus?
English Summary
Chatham House frames Trump’s Belarus policy as a sharp departure from the West’s prior strategy of non-recognition and sanctions against Lukashenka. The immediate evidence is Washington’s lifting of sanctions on Belavia after the September release of Belarusian political prisoners, alongside public statements from Trump and Lukashenka about negotiating a larger deal. The article’s core reasoning is that this transactional approach may generate short-term leverage (for example, prisoner releases) but could undercut coordinated Western pressure on the regime. Strategically, it implies a tradeoff between tactical engagement and alliance cohesion, with potential spillover for Russia-containment policy and Belarus’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）將川普的白俄羅斯政策界定為對西方既有「不承認盧卡申科政權並施加制裁」策略的明顯轉向。其直接證據包括：在白俄羅斯於9月釋放政治犯後，華府解除對白俄羅斯國家航空公司（Belavia）的制裁；同時，川普與盧卡申科亦公開表示正就更大規模協議進行談判。文章核心論點認為，此種交易式作法雖可能帶來短期籌碼（例如促成政治犯獲釋），但也可能削弱西方對該政權的協同施壓。從戰略層面看，這意味著戰術接觸與同盟凝聚力之間的權衡，並可能外溢影響對俄遏制政策，以及白俄羅斯在俄羅斯對烏克蘭戰爭中的角色。
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