The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
A Last Chance for Hungary
English Summary
The article argues that Hungary has solidified into an entrenched autocracy under Viktor Orban, marking a significant democratic reversal over the last decade. Key evidence points to Fidesz's systematic dismantling of democratic institutions, the concentration of political power and wealth among loyalists, and the institutionalization of rule by decree, often citing the Ukraine war as justification. This trajectory suggests that the opposition remains fragmented and voters are increasingly apathetic, making internal democratic correction highly unlikely. For policymakers, this implies that external pressure or strategic engagement must account for Hungary's deeply consolidated, non-democratic political structure.
中文摘要
本文指出，匈牙利已在維克多·歐爾班（Viktor Orban）的領導下，鞏固為一個根深蒂固的獨裁政體，這標誌著過去十年來一次重大的民主倒退。關鍵證據包括：匈牙利執政黨「正義與民族聯盟」（Fidesz）系統性地瓦解民主制度；政治權力和財富集中於忠誠派人士手中；以及常以烏克蘭戰爭為藉口，將「法令統治」制度化。這一趨勢顯示，反對派仍處於分裂狀態，選民的冷漠情緒日益加劇，使得內部民主修正的可能性極低。對於政策制定者而言，這意味著外部壓力或戰略性介入必須充分考量匈牙利深度鞏固、非民主的政治結構。
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