The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Nukes Without Limits? A New Era After the End of New START
English Summary
The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, marks the end of formal limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, raising significant risks of a new arms race and strategic miscalculation. Experts warn that the loss of robust verification measures and on-site inspections will erode intelligence precision, likely prompting both superpowers to 'upload' reserve warheads onto existing delivery systems. To maintain stability, U.S. policy must balance necessary modernization—such as reopening submarine missile tubes—with the urgent pursuit of a follow-on agreement that ideally addresses non-strategic weapons and China's growing nuclear capabilities.
中文摘要
《新削減戰略武器條約》（New START）於 2026 年 2 月 5 日到期，標誌著美俄核武庫正式限制的終結，顯著增加了新一輪軍備競賽與戰略誤判的風險。專家警告，強力核查措施與現場視察的缺失將削弱情報精確度，可能促使兩大強權在現有運載系統上「裝載」預備彈頭。為維持穩定，美國政策必須在必要的現代化進程（如重新啟用潛艇飛彈發射管）與緊迫尋求後續協議之間取得平衡，且理想的協議應涵蓋非戰略性武器及中國日益增長的核能力。
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