Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
The Rise of the Russian Hawks: Ideology and Politics From the Late Soviet Union to Putin’s Russia
English Summary
The research traces the rise of 'modernist conservatism'—an anti-Western ideology encompassing Orthodox monarchists and Eurasianists—from informal intellectual circles in the late Soviet era to its current influence on the Putin regime. Key evidence shows that these groups advocate for a self-reliant Russian model based on technological and military might to assert civilizational distinction from the West. While the Kremlin has increasingly adopted this thinking, the leadership now relies on external think tanks rather than formal state institutions for ideological production. This suggests that Russia's strategic direction is driven by decentralized, yet potent, ideological currents, complicating policy responses and signaling a persistent, non-state source of geopolitical pressure.
中文摘要
本研究追溯了「現代保守主義」的興起——這是一種涵蓋正統君主主義者和歐亞主義者的反西方意識形態——從蘇聯晚期的非正式知識圈，直至其當前對普京政權的影響。關鍵證據顯示，這些群體主張建立一個自立的俄羅斯模式，該模式基於技術和軍事力量，以確立與西方文明的區別。儘管克里姆林宮日益採納了這種思維，但其領導層現在依賴外部智庫而非正式國家機構來進行意識形態生產。這表明俄羅斯的戰略方向是由分散但強勁的意識形態思潮所驅動，這使得政策回應變得複雜化，並預示著一個持續的、非國家層面的地緣政治壓力來源。
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