Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil-Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking
English Summary
The article argues that Russian defense policymaking operates within an "imperfect equilibrium" between presidential authority and military leadership, characterized by cycles of reform and centralization. Key evidence traces Putin's efforts to control the armed forces, from the sweeping reforms of Anatoly Serdyukov to the subsequent rearmament under Sergei Shoigu. However, the military's structural flaws became critically evident during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, effective military improvement requires deeper presidential involvement in decision-making and the significant militarization of the national economy.
中文摘要
本文論述俄羅斯國防政策制定在總統權威與軍方領導之間，運作於一種「不完美的平衡」之中，其特徵是改革與集權化的循環。關鍵證據追溯了普丁試圖控制武裝部隊的努力，從 Anatoly Serdyukov 進行的全面改革，到隨後由 Sergei Shoigu 推動的再武裝化。然而，軍方結構性的缺陷在 2022 年入侵烏克蘭期間變得極為明顯。因此，要實現有效的軍事提升，需要總統在決策過程中更深入地介入，並推動國家經濟的顯著軍事化。
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The analyst views the announced US-Iran deal as a fragile, temporary measure rather than a lasting settlement because it fails to address the core causes of conflict or resolve major outstanding issues like Iran's nuclear program. While reopening the Strait of Hormuz is welcome, true stability requires comprehensive negotiations that move beyond bilateral talks and incorporate regional stakeholders (e.g., China, Arab states). For the deal to endure, diplomatic efforts must adopt a multi-layered approach focused on building confidence among all parties and establishing clear structures for accountability and long-term support.