The Western Pacific remains a highly active theater defined by sustained U.S.-led military exercises and escalating great power competition. Key evidence includes continuous joint operations, such as RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii and the deployment of CSGs into the South China Sea, juxtaposed with increased naval activity from both China (PLAN task groups) and Russia near Japan's critical straits. These movements underscore a strategic push by non-allied powers to assert presence and challenge regional norms. Policy implications dictate that allied nations must maintain robust multilateral cooperation and interoperability to safeguard freedom of navigation and manage escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil-Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking
English Summary
The article argues that Russian defense policymaking operates within an "imperfect equilibrium" between presidential authority and military leadership, characterized by cycles of reform and centralization. Key evidence traces Putin's efforts to control the armed forces, from the sweeping reforms of Anatoly Serdyukov to the subsequent rearmament under Sergei Shoigu. However, the military's structural flaws became critically evident during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, effective military improvement requires deeper presidential involvement in decision-making and the significant militarization of the national economy.
中文摘要
本文論述俄羅斯國防政策制定在總統權威與軍方領導之間，運作於一種「不完美的平衡」之中，其特徵是改革與集權化的循環。關鍵證據追溯了普丁試圖控制武裝部隊的努力，從 Anatoly Serdyukov 進行的全面改革，到隨後由 Sergei Shoigu 推動的再武裝化。然而，軍方結構性的缺陷在 2022 年入侵烏克蘭期間變得極為明顯。因此，要實現有效的軍事提升，需要總統在決策過程中更深入地介入，並推動國家經濟的顯著軍事化。
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