The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What Is the Future of U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade?
English Summary
The upcoming mandatory review of the USMCA is expected to be highly contentious, driven by historical U.S. tariff actions that have undermined regional integration and caused significant strain, particularly with Canada. In response, Mexico and Canada are attempting to hedge against an unreliable Washington by forming independent bilateral partnerships. While the agreement may remain in force even without immediate consensus, the U.S. may attempt to leverage the review to push its neighbors toward a 'rules of control' paradigm, forcing common external tariffs or export controls, especially concerning China. For stability, the U.S. should aim for an expeditious reaffirmation of the USMCA with minimal modifications to prevent trade uncertainty.
中文摘要
美國《美墨加協定》（USMCA）即將到來的強制性審查預計將極具爭議性。其主要驅動因素是美國歷史上的關稅行動，這些行動削弱了區域整合，並尤其與加拿大之間造成了重大壓力。作為回應，墨西哥和加拿大正試圖透過建立獨立的雙邊夥伴關係，對沖來自不穩定的華盛頓的風險。儘管該協定即使在缺乏即時共識的情況下仍可能維持實施，但美國可能會利用此次審查，將其鄰國推向一種「控制規則」的範式，迫使他們實施共同外部關稅或出口管制，特別是針對中國。為確保穩定，美國應著力尋求迅速且僅作最小修訂的USMCA重申，以避免貿易不確定性。
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