The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Beijing’s approach to the conflict in Iran and its implications for China
English Summary
The conflict in Iran presents a mixed strategic picture for Beijing, offering diplomatic opportunities by allowing China to position itself as a neutral mediator and distracting the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific. However, these gains are offset by significant economic instability, energy market volatility, and the exposure of China's limited operational reach in the region. Strategically, Beijing's primary concern remains maintaining stability with the U.S. to ensure its continued rise, leading it to prioritize de-escalation over deep regional involvement. Ultimately, China must navigate the tension between asserting regional influence and mitigating the severe economic risks posed by disrupted global supply chains.
中文摘要
伊朗的衝突為北京呈現了複雜的戰略圖景。一方面，它提供了外交機會，使中國能夠將自身定位為中立調解人，並分散美國對印太地區的注意力。然而，這些收益卻被顯著的經濟不穩定性、能源市場的波動性，以及中國在該地區有限的行動範圍所抵消。從戰略角度來看，北京的首要關切仍然是維持與美國的穩定關係，以確保其持續崛起，因此它傾向於將降級衝突置於深層地區參與之上。最終，中國必須在主張地區影響力與緩解全球供應鏈中斷所帶來的嚴重經濟風險之間，尋求平衡與周旋。
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