The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Military Analysis of the War With Iran
English Summary
A CFR analysis published in 2026 assesses the military campaign in the Iran War as largely ineffective in achieving strategic objectives. Despite significant damage inflicted on Iranian conventional weapons and naval capabilities, Iran continues to control vital waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and launch attacks, demonstrating a resilience that undermines the campaign’s success. The analysis highlights a crucial distinction between the ‘war of destruction’ – where the US Air Force achieved relative success – and a ‘war of disruption’ focused on countering Iranian drone and missile attacks, which the US has struggled with, leading to continued disruption of maritime traffic. Ultimately, the report concludes that Iran has effectively won the air war that matters most, highlighting the limitations of airpower in complex asymmetric conflicts.
中文摘要
2026年布林頓學會（CFR）的一份分析報告評估了伊朗戰爭的軍事行動在很大程度上未能實現戰略目標。儘管美軍對伊朗的傳統武器和海上力量造成了顯著損害，但伊朗仍然控制著如霍爾木茲海峽等關鍵航道並持續發動攻擊，展現出其頑強的抵抗力，這削弱了這一行動的成功。報告強調了‘破壞戰爭’（即美軍空軍取得相對成功）與‘干擾戰爭’（旨在反擊伊朗無人機和飛彈襲擊）之間的關鍵區別，而美軍在後者方面掙扎不當地，導致持續的航運干擾。最終，報告得出結論，伊朗有效地贏得了最重要的空戰，突顯了空軍在複雜的非對稱衝突中的局限性。
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