The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Moscow’s Latest Victory Day Parade Reveals Cracks in Putin’s Russia
English Summary
The article argues that Russia's recent public displays, such as the diminished Victory Day parade, reveal deep structural cracks in its power and stability. Key evidence includes the military hardware's absence, slowing economic growth, and internal security tensions exacerbated by infighting and digital crackdowns. For policy, the analysis suggests that while Russia remains a threat, its declining geopolitical influence, coupled with the strengthening and consolidating hard-power capabilities of Europe and NATO, indicates a long-term erosion of Moscow's global standing.
中文摘要
本文論述俄羅斯近期公開的舉動，例如縮減的勝利日閱兵，揭示了其權力和穩定性深層的結構性裂痕。關鍵證據包括軍事硬體設備的缺失、經濟增長放緩，以及因內部鬥爭和數位監控而加劇的內部安全緊張局勢。在政策層面，分析指出，儘管俄羅斯仍構成威脅，但其地緣政治影響力的衰退，結合歐洲和北約日益強化和鞏固的硬實力能力，顯示出莫斯科全球地位的長期侵蝕。
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