Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran
English Summary
The war in Iran is unlikely to establish China as a direct replacement for the US as the Gulf's security provider, but it is accelerating the region's strategic shift away from absolute reliance on American guarantees. This dynamic allows China to gain influence by positioning itself as a diplomatic and technological partner, rather than a military guarantor. Gulf states are diversifying their defense procurement and seeking alternative regional stability models. Consequently, China is well-positioned to promote its own normative framework for regional cooperation, making its principles appealing to nations seeking stability without US-centric security commitments.
中文摘要
伊蘭戰爭不太可能讓中國成為海灣地區取代美國的直接安全提供者，但它確實加速了該地區擺脫對美國保障絕對依賴的戰略轉型。這種動態使得中國能夠將自身定位為外交和技術夥伴，而非軍事擔保方，從而獲得影響力。海灣國家正在多元化其國防採購，並尋求替代性的區域穩定模式。因此，中國處於有利地位，可以推動其自身的區域合作規範框架，使其原則對尋求穩定但又不願接受以美國為中心的安全承諾的國家具有吸引力。
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