Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
Russia’s Descent Into Tyranny
English Summary
The article argues that Russia is undergoing a descent into a more overt and pervasive form of tyranny following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Key evidence cited includes the unexpected surge in popularity of George Orwell’s *1984* within Russian culture, suggesting a growing internal awareness or critique of the regime's totalitarian tendencies. For policy, this implies that Western strategies must anticipate deepening internal dissent and recognize that the Kremlin's control mechanisms are becoming increasingly reliant on propaganda and surveillance. Policymakers should prepare for a prolonged period of internal instability and heightened authoritarianism within the Russian state.
中文摘要
本文論述俄羅斯在2022年入侵烏克蘭後，正走向一種更明顯、更普遍的暴政狀態。文章引用的關鍵證據包括喬治·歐威爾的《一九八四》在俄羅斯文化中意外的熱度激增，這暗示著內部對於政權全體主義傾向的意識或批判正在增長。從政策層面來看，這意味著西方戰略必須預期內部異議的加深，並認識到克里姆林宮的控制機制正越來越依賴宣傳和監控。政策制定者應為俄羅斯國家長期內在不穩定和高度威權化的時期做好準備。
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