The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What should a more European NATO look like? The US and Europe disagree
English Summary
The article argues that NATO is entering a structural shift: many Europeans now define “doing more” as long-term strategic autonomy, while the US still expects greater European spending within US-led command, planning, and procurement frameworks. It supports this with evidence of collapsing European trust in the US, strong public backing for deeper EU military integration, and concrete moves such as oversubscribed EU defense funding instruments and tighter regional cooperation. Although Europe still faces near-term capability and coordination gaps, the author says current rearmament and political momentum are unlikely to reverse even if US politics change. The policy implication is that Washington and NATO need explicit planning for a more independent Europe now, or face growing alliance friction over command, capabilities, and defense-industrial choices.
中文摘要
本文主張北約正進入一場結構性轉變：許多歐洲國家如今將「做得更多」界定為追求長期戰略自主，而美國仍期待歐洲在美國主導的指揮、規劃與採購架構內增加支出。文章以多項證據支持此論點，包括歐洲對美國信任下滑、民意對更深層歐盟軍事整合的強力支持，以及歐盟防務融資工具超額認購與區域合作趨緊等具體動向。儘管歐洲短期內仍存在能力與協調缺口，作者認為即使美國政治局勢改變，當前再武裝與政治動能也不太可能逆轉。其政策意涵是：華府與北約現在就需明確規劃一個更獨立的歐洲，否則聯盟在指揮體系、能力建設與國防工業選擇上的摩擦將持續升高。
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