The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.
Are America and China Condemned to Repeat History?
English Summary
The article argues that the current global landscape is entering a great-power competition mirroring the volatile period leading up to World War I, posing a threat of global catastrophe. Key evidence includes rising nationalism, deep mutual suspicion between major powers (US, China, Russia), and unresolved flashpoints across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Policymakers must adopt sophisticated, historically informed strategies to navigate this tension, recognizing the 'paradox of preparation'—where fear itself can trigger conflict—to prevent a systemic breakdown of international order.
中文摘要
本文論述當前的全球格局正進入一場大國競爭，其動態與一戰前夕的動盪時期相似，構成全球災難的威脅。關鍵證據包括民族主義的抬頭、主要大國（美、中、俄）之間深層的相互懷疑，以及印太地區及其他區域內未決的衝突點。政策制定者必須採取複雜且具歷史洞察力的策略來應對此種緊張局勢，並認識到「準備的悖論」——即恐懼本身可能引發衝突——以預防國際秩序的系統性崩潰。
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