The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
America’s War of Choice on Iran
English Summary
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a major, destabilizing escalation, pushing the region toward a protracted conflagration. Experts argue that Iran's retaliatory strikes were a calculated, existential move, demonstrating a willingness to engage in a long conflict by targeting soft underbellies, such as Gulf neighbors and American assets. This strategy allows Iran to gamble that it can outlast the current U.S. political administration. For policy, the primary implication is managing the risk of regional spillover, mitigating domestic economic fallout, and navigating the highly decentralized and politically charged nature of U.S. decision-making regarding the conflict.
中文摘要
美以聯手對伊朗的打擊引發了重大的、動盪的升級，將該地區推向曠日持久的戰火。專家指出，伊朗的報復性打擊是一場經過深思熟慮的、關乎生存的舉動，其目標是攻擊如海灣鄰國和美國資產等「軟肋」，顯示出其願意捲入長期衝突的意願。從政策層面來看，主要影響包括管理區域溢出風險、減輕國內經濟衝擊，以及應對美國在處理此衝突時高度分散化且政治敏感的決策性質。
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