The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Aid in an age of security: What should the UK’s global priorities be?
English Summary
The Chatham House panel argued that shrinking Western aid budgets are no longer just a development issue but a strategic security risk for the UK and its partners. Speakers cited sharp cuts across major donors, disruption from the 2025 USAID retrenchment, and operational impacts such as HALO Trust potentially shrinking from 12,000 to 7,000 staff, warning this will hit fragile and conflict-affected states hardest. They reasoned that reduced support for conflict prevention, multilateral institutions, and long-term partnerships creates space for rival influence, increases instability and migration pressures, and weakens UK diplomatic leverage. For UK strategy, the discussion pointed to prioritizing conflict-focused aid, preserving credible multilateral engagement while using targeted bilateral strengths, rebuilding a clear long-term narrative linking aid to domestic security, and mobilizing non-traditional and private financing to offset fiscal constraints.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）的小組指出，西方援助預算縮減已不再只是發展議題，而是英國及其夥伴面臨的戰略安全風險。與會者提及主要捐助方的顯著削減、2025年美國國際開發總署（USAID）收縮所造成的擾動，以及地面運作層面的衝擊，例如 HALO Trust 的人力可能由12,000人縮減至7,000人，並警告脆弱與受衝突影響國家將首當其衝。其論點認為，對衝突預防、多邊機構與長期夥伴關係的支持減少，將為競爭對手擴張影響力創造空間，並加劇不穩定與移民壓力，同時削弱英國的外交槓桿。就英國戰略而言，討論建議優先投入以衝突為核心的援助，在維持可信多邊參與的同時運用具針對性的雙邊優勢，重建將援助與國內安全連結的清晰長期敘事，並動員非傳統與民間資金以緩解財政約束。
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