The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Spheres by Default
English Summary
The article argues that the concept of great power spheres of influence has evolved beyond traditional military boundaries, now manifesting in functional domains like critical technology and digital infrastructure. This shift allows powerful states, such as China, to consolidate an 'open sphere' by leveraging economic and technological influence, particularly if the United States makes unilateral concessions or is strategically distracted. The author warns that the U.S.'s willingness to make policy concessions regarding Taiwan and its diminishing reliability as a security guarantor could hasten China's consolidation of influence in the Indo-Pacific. Strategically, this necessitates that Washington update its understanding of modern spheres to prevent a major geopolitical division that could escalate into conflict.
中文摘要
本文論述「大國勢力範圍」的概念已超越傳統的軍事邊界，現已體現在關鍵技術和數位基礎設施等功能領域。這種轉變使得像中國這樣的強權國家，能夠透過經濟和技術影響力，鞏固一個「開放領域」，特別是當美國做出單邊讓步或在戰略上分心時。作者警告，美國在台灣問題上願意做出政策讓步，以及其作為安全保障提供者可靠性的下降，可能會加速中國在印太地區的勢力鞏固。從戰略角度來看，這要求華盛頓必須更新其對現代勢力範圍的理解，以避免導致可能升級為衝突的重大地緣政治分裂。
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