The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
The Autonomous Battlefield
English Summary
Autonomous warfare is emerging not through visible robotic armies, but through the quiet, rapid deployment of machine-executed missions, exemplified by current conflicts in eastern Ukraine and the Middle East. The core shift involves systems operating at speeds unmatched by human operators, increasingly coordinating as networked, platoon-sized units without continuous human intervention. This trend necessitates a fundamental doctrinal pivot, as military forces must adapt to command structures that assume machine-to-machine coordination. Failure to rapidly integrate these autonomous capabilities risks strategic disadvantage for any force reliant on traditional, human-centric command and control.
中文摘要
自主戰鬥的興起並非體現在可見的機器人軍隊，而是透過機動、快速部署的機器執行任務。東烏克蘭和中東的當前衝突便是例證。核心轉變在於系統的運作速度已超越人類操作員的能力，它們正日益協調成網路化的、如同排隊單位的單元，且無需持續的人為干預。此趨勢要求軍事力量進行根本的教義轉變，必須適應假設機器間協調的指揮結構。若未能迅速整合這些自主能力，任何依賴傳統、以人為中心的指揮與控制系統的武力，都將面臨戰略劣勢。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that current market borrowing costs are rising independently of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, challenging the assumption that the Fed controls all rates. Evidence shows significant increases in key rates—such as 2-year Treasuries and mortgages—even while the effective federal funds rate remains steady. This divergence occurs because market rates reflect complex factors like inflation expectations, credit risk, and geopolitical volatility, which are outside the central bank's direct control. Policymakers should therefore recognize that sustainable rate moderation requires credible disinflation and disciplined government budgets, rather than relying solely on Fed intervention.
-
3.
Despite recent trade setbacks, the U.S. retains fundamental structural economic leverage over China, particularly in high-tech sectors and intermediate goods. While Beijing can temporarily weaponize specific resources like rare earths, these chokepoints are vulnerable to diversification efforts by the West. The article argues that the most effective strategy is not unilateral action but coordinated multilateral pressure from U.S. allies across Asia and Europe. Washington must therefore coordinate its economic statecraft with partners to maximize damage to China’s export-dependent model.
-
4.U.S. Navy Orders Low-cost Missiles to Expand Fleet, Allied Long-Range Maritime Strike Capabilities (USNI)
The U.S. Navy is prioritizing the procurement of low-cost, long-range cruise missiles through programs like CHAOS and CAMS to significantly expand strike capabilities for both its own fleet and allied partners. This strategic shift provides affordable precision munitions capable of striking targets up to 1,000 nautical miles, addressing critical stockpiles depleted by recent conflicts. By developing these systems, the U.S. aims to overcome procurement delays faced by allies (such as Japan and Taiwan) who rely on older missile designs. Ultimately, this initiative strengthens allied deterrence and bolsters long-range maritime strike capabilities necessary for potential conflict with China.
-
5.
Escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S., coupled with renewed Houthi blockades in the Red Sea, have severely disrupted critical shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Key evidence includes sharply reduced transit numbers and repeated attacks by Iranian-linked vessels off Oman's coast, while the Houthis enforce a maritime embargo on Saudi-linked ships. Strategically, this instability threatens global energy markets, forcing major powers to weigh their import needs. The continued volatility suggests that both Iran and the U.S. are willing to absorb significant economic pain to gain geopolitical leverage over regional stability.