The article argues that military escalation against Iran, even when targeting key leadership figures, is strategically counterproductive and may ultimately favor Tehran. Evidence from the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes during Operation Epic Fury demonstrates that the regime's resilience and operational capacity are high, as evidenced by the immediate launch of hundreds of ballistic missiles. This suggests that attempts at 'decapitation' strikes fail to limit the scope of conflict. Policymakers should therefore view direct military confrontation as highly risky, necessitating a shift toward alternative, non-escalatory strategies.
2026-W11
This digest page is part of ThinkTankWeekly's portal index. It summarizes notable reports and links readers to the original source websites.
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1.
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2.
The article argues that Iran's 'axis of resistance' is rapidly escalating a localized conflict into a full-blown regional war. Key evidence includes Iranian-cultivated militias striking targets in Iraq and neighboring countries, followed by Hezbollah launching retaliatory attacks against Israel. This regionalization of conflict demonstrates that Iran's proxy network remains highly active despite previous setbacks. The implication for policy is that the 'axis' poses a significant and growing threat to regional stability, requiring heightened strategic vigilance from international powers.
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3.
The article argues that the current US foreign policy is undergoing a 'postliberal' shift, moving away from adherence to the rules-based international order and toward a model rooted in raw power politics. This shift is evidenced by the revival of doctrines like the Monroe Doctrine and the emphasis on 'hardnosed realism' in the 2026 National Defense Strategy. The policy signals a preference for unilateral action and power balancing over multilateral cooperation or international norms. Policymakers should anticipate a strategic pivot that prioritizes immediate national power interests, potentially complicating traditional diplomatic alliances.
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4.
The article asserts that despite the complexity of the conflict, the military superiority of the United States and Israel is undeniable. This conclusion is drawn from recent, massive strikes since February 28, which reportedly killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and key IRGC commanders while significantly degrading Iran's missile, drone, and naval capabilities. The piece frames these actions as necessary due to the Iranian regime's history of brutality and violence against both Americans and its own populace. The implied strategic implication is that the current military pressure is aimed at dismantling the threat posed by the regime.
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5.
The article challenges the prevailing assumption that Africa is economically fragile and overly dependent on external aid, arguing that this narrative is outdated. Despite global uncertainty and significant cuts in foreign aid from major donors, many African economies have demonstrated unexpected resilience and adaptive capacity. This suggests that African nations possess greater self-sufficiency and stability than previously modeled. Policymakers must therefore revise their risk assessments and strategic engagement models, recognizing the continent's inherent economic strength.
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6.
Geopolitical tensions and the rise of economic warfare are fundamentally reshaping the relationship between states and private enterprise. Governments are increasingly implementing robust measures—such as export controls, investment screening, and subsidies—to protect domestic markets and reshore critical industries. This necessity forces states to compel corporate behavior to achieve foreign policy aims, effectively leading to a global trend toward state capitalism. Policymakers must recognize that the success of these interventions depends on the state's ability to manage and dictate corporate actions, fundamentally altering traditional market dynamics.
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7.
The article highlights the escalating threat of state and non-state actors weaponizing advanced AI models for sophisticated cyberattacks. Key evidence includes Anthropic reporting large-scale, automated cyberattacks orchestrated by Chinese operators, and OpenAI noting intensified phishing and malware efforts by Iranian hackers. These incidents demonstrate that cutting-edge AI is being used to target critical U.S. infrastructure with minimal human intervention. Policymakers must urgently develop robust defensive strategies and international norms to mitigate the vulnerability of national systems to AI-powered cyber warfare.
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8.
The article posits that democratic nations are structurally optimized for two extremes of conflict: small, professional 'little wars' or massive, total wars requiring full societal mobilization. The core finding is that democracies face a unique strategic vulnerability when confronted with 'middle-sized wars.' These conflicts are sufficiently destructive to cause immense bloodshed but are too limited to necessitate the full commitment of the home front, creating a profound dilemma. This structural mismatch suggests that modern democracies may be poorly equipped to manage conflicts that fall between the spectrum of limited and total warfare, impacting strategic planning and military readiness.
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9.
The article argues that Iran maintains a significant and underestimated drone advantage, evidenced by the recent deployment of US military technology. Specifically, the US Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drone used in recent strikes is structurally based on Iran's own low-cost Shahed-136 model. This reliance suggests that the US military's technological edge in this domain is limited, forcing a reassessment of the threat posed by affordable, asymmetric Iranian weaponry. Policymakers must recognize that countering Iran's drone capability requires addressing the fundamental technological parity rather than simply focusing on advanced countermeasures.
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10.
Autonomous warfare is emerging not through visible robotic armies, but through the quiet, rapid deployment of machine-executed missions, exemplified by current conflicts in eastern Ukraine and the Middle East. The core shift involves systems operating at speeds unmatched by human operators, increasingly coordinating as networked, platoon-sized units without continuous human intervention. This trend necessitates a fundamental doctrinal pivot, as military forces must adapt to command structures that assume machine-to-machine coordination. Failure to rapidly integrate these autonomous capabilities risks strategic disadvantage for any force reliant on traditional, human-centric command and control.
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11.
The analysis argues that despite massive, successful strikes that have crippled Iran's leadership, navy, and military infrastructure, the Islamic Republic remains a persistent and unpredictable threat. While the regime is severely degraded, its inherent resilience suggests that outright collapse is unlikely. The primary danger, therefore, is not the state's failure, but the resulting regional instability and power vacuums created by its decline. Policy must shift focus from anticipating regime collapse to managing the complex, unpredictable fallout and potential proxy conflicts in the Middle East.
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12.
The analysis concludes that even if the Iranian regime survives the current conflict greatly weakened, it will remain a significant and dangerous regional threat. This persistence is due to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which holds the true coercive power, ensuring that the regime will prioritize maintaining the status quo over radical change. The leadership succession, whether through Mojtaba Khamenei or a successor, will be driven by vengeance and resistance, guaranteeing continued instability and potential for terrorism. Strategically, this suggests that external military intervention is unlikely to achieve a swift regime collapse, necessitating a long-term strategy focused on managing persistent regional volatility.
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13.
Iran has developed a sophisticated arsenal of mine and missile capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which could be used as leverage to disrupt global oil flow and create a dangerous strategic choke point. The combination of these threats and the U.S. Navy's limited, untested mine clearance capacity makes military intervention highly risky and suboptimal. Therefore, the analysis argues that the U.S. should avoid costly escalation or attempts to clear the mines during a conflict. Instead, strategic focus must shift toward diplomatic efforts to find an 'off-ramp' from the larger war to prevent further destabilization of global energy markets.
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14.
The succession of the Iranian Supreme Leader is portrayed as a forced effort to maintain continuity rather than a stable, merit-based decision. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that severely damaged the regime's military and clerical leadership, the Assembly of Experts was compelled to select Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, out of sheer necessity. This emergency succession process underscores the profound vulnerability of the Islamic Republic's leadership structure. Strategically, this suggests that the regime remains highly fragile and susceptible to external pressure, complicating long-term regional stability.
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15.
This analysis examines the controversial removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting the tension between addressing his authoritarian policies and respecting national sovereignty. The core debate centers on whether external intervention, while potentially beneficial for the country's stability, violates international law and territorial integrity. The article suggests that while Maduro's departure is ultimately positive for Venezuela, the manner of his removal was legally problematic. For policymakers, the implication is the need for a strategy that promotes democratic reform and stability without undermining the principles of international law or state sovereignty.
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16.
Brookings experts argue that the Trump administration’s military campaign against Iran lacks a coherent long-term strategy and clear objectives, shifting from nuclear containment to regime change without adequate planning for the resulting power vacuum. While conventional strikes were initially successful, the U.S. remains vulnerable to asymmetric threats like drones and faces massive logistical challenges in evacuating hundreds of thousands of citizens from the region. Analysts emphasize the need for an immediate diplomatic 'off-ramp' and a realistic plan for dealing with a weakened but still-entrenched Iranian regime to avoid prolonged regional instability.
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17.
Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman reflects on his 2012 meeting with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, highlighting the Supreme Leader's paranoid obsession with United States 'enmity' and his conviction that America was a declining, malicious power. During the encounter, Khamenei ignored standard diplomatic topics to deliver a lengthy monologue indicting U.S. foreign policy and predicting its internal collapse, dismissing diplomatic overtures as deceptive ruses. This rigid ideological hostility drove Iran’s regional proxy warfare and nuclear ambitions, indicating that Khamenei viewed negotiations primarily as a tactical means to buy time. The reflection underscores how the Supreme Leader's unshakeable distrust shaped decades of Iranian policy, persisting through major escalations until his death in early 2026.
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18.
Brookings experts argue that the U.S.-Israeli decapitation strike against Iran’s leadership is unlikely to trigger an immediate regime collapse, risking instead a protracted conflict and regional instability. The analysis highlights the resilience of the Islamic Republic's institutional networks and its escalatory survival strategy, which targets neighboring energy infrastructure to force diplomatic concessions. Policymakers are warned that without a coherent 'day after' plan or the integration of civilian statecraft, the intervention could lead to a 'lose-lose' scenario of state fragmentation and emboldened global adversaries.
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19.
Iraq faces a critical threat of internal collapse as it becomes an involuntary staging ground for escalating hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the United States following the assassination of Ali Khamenei. Despite a weakened interim government, Iraqi political and religious leaders like Grand Ayatollah Sistani are striving to maintain neutrality to prevent a descent into multi-front civil conflict involving various paramilitary and ethnic groups. The country's stability is currently jeopardized by retaliatory strikes on its soil and disruptions to vital oil and electricity infrastructure. Consequently, the United States should avoid escalatory military actions within Iraq and prioritize diplomatic partnerships to preserve the country's role as a regional stabilizer.
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20.
The Brookings 2026 USMCA Forward report argues that the upcoming joint review of the trade agreement is a critical juncture for North American partners to address structural strains and enhance regional competitiveness. Through analyses of key sectors like automotive, steel, and pharmaceuticals, the report highlights how increased economic integration persists despite political friction and supply chain vulnerabilities. Policymakers must focus on refining dispute settlement processes and labor mechanisms to ensure the agreement remains a stable foundation for continental trade rather than a source of recurring uncertainty.
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21.
The 2026 USMCA Forward report highlights a period of significant uncertainty as the agreement undergoes its first-ever joint review, with the U.S. currently signaling a preference for continuation without renewal unless key concessions are obtained. While trade and investment flows have grown under the agreement, the analysis points to strained diplomatic trust and sectoral challenges in automotive, steel, and agriculture due to persistent tariff threats. Ultimately, the review process serves as a critical mechanism for adapting the trade framework to modern economic realities, though its long-term stability depends on addressing U.S. demands for structural revisions.
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22.Reduced immigration slowed population growth for the nation and most states, new census data show (Brookings)
New Census Bureau data indicates that a sharp reduction in international migration has nearly halved U.S. population growth, which fell to 0.52% in the 2024-25 period. Stricter immigration policies and increased deportations led to a drop in net migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, causing 48 states to experience slower growth or absolute population declines. As natural population increase remains historically low due to an aging demographic, immigration now accounts for the vast majority of U.S. population gains. These findings suggest that continued migration restrictions will likely lead to widespread population stagnation and labor force shortages, threatening long-term economic productivity across nearly every state.
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23.
This report argues that the rapid expansion of ICE has severely outpaced accountability mechanisms, leading to systemic civil rights violations and the deaths of U.S. citizens. The authors cite a drastic reduction in agent training—from 22 weeks to 47 days—alongside lowered hiring standards and the pursuit of 'absolute immunity' as primary drivers of this crisis. The surge in enforcement has resulted in widespread reports of excessive force and racial profiling, undermining the legitimacy of federal law enforcement. To restore constitutional protections, the analysis recommends implementing mandatory body cameras, enhanced de-escalation training, and the removal of absolute immunity.
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24.
The report contends that the current 'deterrence-only' immigration posture is counterproductive, citing its role in driving negative net migration and a $50 billion reduction in consumer spending. Key evidence highlights how aggressive enforcement without legal pathways has exacerbated labor shortages in critical sectors while failing to address the root causes of displacement. The analysis suggests that a sustainable strategy must integrate swift enforcement with expanded lawful pathways and regional cooperation to manage migration flows effectively. Ultimately, the choice for 2026 lies between maintaining a cycle of manufactured crises or implementing a modernized system that aligns with U.S. economic and security interests.
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25.
Brookings estimates that U.S. net migration likely turned negative in 2025 for the first time in 50 years, with projections suggesting continued declines through 2026 due to restrictive policies and increased enforcement. This shift is driven by a sharp reduction in new arrivals—including green cards, refugees, and humanitarian parole—alongside a rise in both formal removals and voluntary departures. The resulting population pressure significantly lowers 'breakeven employment growth' to between 20,000 and 50,000 jobs per month and is expected to reduce consumer spending by up to $110 billion. Consequently, policymakers and the Federal Reserve must account for these structural labor supply constraints when interpreting weak employment data and setting monetary policy.
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26.
The Brookings Institution has launched a comprehensive tracker to monitor the significant expansion of U.S. tariffs implemented since January 2025, targeting major trading partners including Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU. These measures include broad sectoral tariffs on commodities like steel and aluminum, alongside country-specific adjustments tied to USMCA compliance and ongoing trade negotiations. By documenting trade-weighted tariff changes and retaliatory actions, the tracker highlights a pivot toward more protectionist U.S. trade policies. Continuous monitoring of these developments is critical for assessing the long-term impact on global economic stability and the status of evolving trade agreements.
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27.
The article examines why the U.S. economy has remained resilient with moderate growth and low unemployment despite unprecedented policy shocks, including high tariffs, negative net immigration, and massive debt expansion. The author attributes this stability to factors such as offsetting stimuli from the AI boom, potential overestimation of initial shock magnitudes, and the inherent time lag required for structural shifts to manifest. Ultimately, the piece warns that while the economy has absorbed these changes so far, the long-term erosion of institutional independence and global trade integration poses significant future risks.
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28.
Current housing supply and affordability metrics rely heavily on 'household heads,' a framework that masks the actual housing strain experienced by nearly half of the adult population who are not designated as heads. Analysis of 2024 American Community Survey data reveals that non-head adults often differ significantly from heads in age and education, with younger individuals being much more exposed to high housing costs than head-based statistics suggest. These measurement gaps risk underestimating true housing demand and mistargeting relief policies, as suppressed headship rates often reflect economic constraints rather than a genuine reduction in housing need.
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29.
The CATO Institute argues that Section 230 remains the foundational legal framework for American online innovation and free expression by protecting platforms from liability for user-generated content. The report highlights how these protections prevent a 'moderator's dilemma' where legal risks would otherwise force companies to either censor aggressively or abandon moderation entirely, disproportionately harming smaller competitors. It warns that weakening this framework amid the rise of generative AI would entrench incumbents and cede technological leadership to foreign adversaries. Consequently, the author recommends preserving Section 230's core principles while establishing a federal standard for unmasking anonymous bad actors to ensure individual accountability.
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30.
This CATO analysis argues that politically motivated terrorism is a statistically minuscule threat, accounting for only 0.35% of U.S. murders between 1975 and 2025. The study finds that 88% of total fatalities resulted from just two extreme events—9/11 and the Oklahoma City bombing—and evidence shows the frequency of attacks is not significantly increasing. While Islamism accounts for the majority of historical deaths, right-wing ideology represents the plurality (45%) when major outliers are excluded. Consequently, the author contends that current federal efforts to expand domestic counter-terrorism measures against political movements are a disproportionate overreaction that threatens civil liberties.
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31.
The report argues that the United States must proactively engage with Colombia's incoming 2026 administration to ensure the full implementation of the 2016 Peace Accords and prevent a return to widespread civil conflict. Evidence suggests that worsening internal violence, the expansion of armed groups, and slow progress on reintegration guarantees have pushed the peace process to a breaking point, compounded by regional spillover from Venezuela. To protect national security interests and stabilize the region, the U.S. should prioritize a bilateral reset that emphasizes diplomatic accompaniment, innovative financial support through international institutions, and targeted security assistance rather than direct military intervention.
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32.
The report argues that the United States cannot out-mine China and must instead "leapfrog" its dominance by scaling disruptive innovations in materials science, waste recovery, and recycling. Analysts emphasize that while traditional mining takes decades to mature, U.S. strengths in AI-enabled research and bio-engineered extraction can bypass Chinese choke points such as heavy rare-earth magnets. To succeed, the authors recommend a national innovation strategy centered on bridging commercialization financing gaps and coordinating with G7 allies to build a circular, independent mineral supply chain.
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33.
Robert D. Blackwill proposes a grand strategy of 'resolute global leadership' as the optimal path for the United States to counter a peer-competitor China and manage the most dangerous international environment since World War II. The strategy synthesizes military superiority with revitalized international cooperation, arguing that American structural advantages—such as its global alliance network and innovation lead—outperform isolationist or purely transactional alternatives. To succeed, the report recommends increasing defense spending, pivoting military assets to Asia, and reversing protectionist trade policies to restore U.S. legitimacy and economic strength. Ultimately, this approach seeks to balance Chinese power through 'peace through strength' while maintaining the stability of the global rules-based order.
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34.
The 2026 Preventive Priorities Survey identifies 30 global conflicts posing significant risks to U.S. national security, highlighting five high-likelihood, high-impact threats including intensified wars in Ukraine and Gaza, potential U.S. military action in Venezuela, and domestic political unrest. The report notes a dangerous shift toward interstate conflict and warns that the dismantling of U.S. conflict-prevention infrastructure increases the likelihood of being blindsided by crises. Experts argue that while risks of great power war persist, the U.S. retains critical leverage to mitigate conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East through proactive diplomacy. Ultimately, the findings urge a strategic return to 'upstream' conflict prevention to protect U.S. interests in an increasingly disorderly world.
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35.
The report argues that the United States must shift from a purely protectionist stance to a proactive strategy of competing with China in the autonomous, connected, and electric (ACE) vehicle market. It contends that while current tariffs provide temporary breathing room, indefinite isolation risks leaving the U.S. auto industry technologically obsolete and uncompetitive as the global market shifts toward Chinese-led innovations. To maintain leadership, the U.S. should provide conditional financial support for domestic repositioning, collaborate with allies on supply chain diversification, and implement rigorous data localization standards for imported technologies.
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36.
The report argues that future conflicts over Taiwan will likely escalate into geographically expansive, multi-actor regional wars, rendering outdated the traditional 'three-party' containment model. Evidence suggests that China’s military modernization and the strategic necessity of Japanese and Philippine bases make preemptive strikes and cross-theater spillover from the South China Sea or Korean Peninsula highly probable. To address these risks, U.S. policymakers should establish multilateral pre-crisis consultative mechanisms with Indo-Pacific allies and accelerate the integration of joint military command structures. This shift is essential for managing simultaneous contingencies and ensuring operational warning in an increasingly unstable global security environment.
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37.
The military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has severely disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening twenty percent of global oil and gas supplies and disproportionately impacting Asian economies. While nations like Japan are buffered by significant strategic reserves, others like India face immediate risks due to limited storage and recent shifts in import patterns. Ultimately, these supply shocks are expected to drive a temporary resurgence in coal usage for affordability while simultaneously accelerating long-term strategic investments in nuclear and renewable energy to ensure national security and reduce reliance on volatile Middle Eastern transit routes.
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38.
The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran and the subsequent death of Supreme Leader Khamenei have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a volatile maritime flashpoint, severely threatening global energy markets. In response to Iranian retaliation and threats of a blockade, vessel traffic through the waterway has dropped by 70%, causing Brent crude and natural gas prices to surge. While U.S. military operations have significantly degraded Iran's formal naval capacity, the continued use of asymmetric tactics like drone strikes and mine-laying forces expensive shipping diversions. This escalation highlights the fragility of regional maritime security and the immediate risk of a broader conflict disrupting essential global trade routes.
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39.
European leaders have responded in a fragmented manner to the uncoordinated U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, revealing deep internal divisions regarding the use of force and international law. While countries like Poland and Germany offer political or conditional support, France and Southern European nations have voiced legal criticisms, highlighting a lack of unified strategic weight. The conflict underscores Europe's continued dependence on the United States even as it pursues greater autonomy through increased defense spending and independent financial support for Ukraine. Ultimately, the war in the Middle East threatens to distract Washington from the European theater and disrupt energy markets, further straining the transatlantic relationship.
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40.
The ongoing conflict with Iran significantly raises the risk of asymmetric retaliation against the U.S. homeland, encompassing lone-wolf terrorism, cyberattacks, and strikes on critical infrastructure. Historically, Tehran has utilized sleeper agents and criminal proxies for state-sponsored terrorism, suggesting that revenge for recent strikes may be deferred until high-profile events like the World Cup. However, U.S. defensive capabilities are currently strained by the Department of Homeland Security's shift toward immigration enforcement and significant workforce cuts in specialized counterintelligence units. Consequently, experts urge an immediate re-prioritization of counterterrorism resources to address these evolving unconventional security threats.
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41.
A joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign in early 2026 has targeted Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure following the collapse of diplomatic negotiations in Oman. While strikes have damaged missile launchers and killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran’s nuclear facilities remain resilient with enrichment levels nearing weapons-grade thresholds. This escalation underscores a shift toward military force to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, though it has yet to fully dismantle the program's technical foundations. The ongoing conflict risks a broader regional war and may incentivize neighboring states like Saudi Arabia to pursue their own nuclear capabilities.
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42.
This CFR report outlines the catastrophic collapse of U.S.-Iran relations, culminating in a massive joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign in February 2026. Following failed nuclear talks and the failure of 'maximum pressure' sanctions, the conflict escalated to direct strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted Iran's nuclear and naval assets. These events have triggered immediate regional retaliation, including Iranian strikes on U.S. Gulf bases and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, presenting a severe threat to global energy stability and risking a broader regional war.
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43.
Following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and devastating U.S.-Israeli military strikes in early 2026, Iran’s complex governance structure faces an unprecedented succession crisis and existential instability. The report explains that an interim three-person council is currently managing the state while the Assembly of Experts searches for a successor amidst a backdrop of domestic unrest and military degradation. Despite these pressures, the regime’s ideological elite and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintain the capacity to use force to preserve the existing system. Consequently, the transition represents a critical inflection point that could either destabilize the Middle East further or lead to a significant reconfiguration of Iranian power.
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44.
The "AI sovereignty paradox" is defined by the tension between the U.S. government’s demand for unfettered military access to AI and the ethical safeguards maintained by private developers. This conflict, highlighted by the Pentagon’s recent standoff with Anthropic, illustrates the lack of a clear domestic regulatory framework for dual-use technologies. Internationally, middle powers are seeking digital sovereignty through localized regulations and infrastructure to reduce dependency on the dominant U.S.-Chinese "AI stack." Consequently, policymakers face the dual challenge of reconciling national security requirements with private sector safety standards while navigating a fragmented global regulatory landscape.
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45.
This analysis posits that while AI is a transformative "A+" technology, firms like OpenAI face an "F-" business model with a high risk of a financing cliff due to astronomical capital requirements and projected losses of $660 billion by 2030. Market fragility is evidenced by the "SaaS-pocalypse" and the potential for a "jobless expansion" as firms freeze hiring while awaiting productivity gains that have yet to appear in macroeconomic data. Consequently, the authors suggest resolving the "AI trilemma" by implementing a safety tax to fund independent research and empowering a national safety institute with veto authority over high-risk models to prevent societal and geopolitical disruption.
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46.
Global military AI adoption is rapidly outstripping international efforts to establish governance, as evidenced by a significant decline in endorsements at the recent REAIM summit. With the United States and China increasingly detached from multilateral dialogues, middle powers now face the critical choice of leading the development of 'rules of the road' or allowing the technology to evolve without international guardrails. The divergence between diplomatic negotiations and the real-world deployment of AI in ongoing conflicts risks making future policy efforts irrelevant to technical and battlefield realities.
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47.
The article argues that the United States' primary competitive advantage in AI lies in developing 'trust infrastructure'—credible assurance frameworks like independent validation and incident reporting—which enables confident large-scale deployment. By drawing on historical precedents in aviation and finance, the author posits that these mechanisms turn technical risks into manageable market assets, allowing the US to set global standards that allies can trust. Strategic implications suggest that the US must establish an integrated framework involving independent benchmarking and federal incident repositories within the next three years to prevent global market fragmentation. Establishing this infrastructure will ensure that American AI remains the global benchmark for high-stakes applications in health, finance, and national security.
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48.
The United States is currently navigating a period of significant experimentation and uncertainty in its foreign policy, marked by shifting stances on major international agreements and relationships. This volatility is evidenced by changing approaches toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate accord, and the Iran nuclear deal, alongside evolving ties with the EU, Russia, and North Korea. Despite this instability, critical global challenges in trade, climate, and security necessitate a continued and vital US role in maintaining international stability and prosperity.
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49.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing significant destruction while the nation simultaneously undergoes a profound internal transition from legacy systems toward a new governance model driven by societal demand. International support for Ukraine's defense is viewed as a transformative force that makes a modernized post-war future inevitable for the country. Consequently, policy analysis must focus on the synergy between Ukraine's domestic reforms and its international relations to ensure long-term stability and security.
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50.
The recent escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict highlights the critical failure of international policies that marginalized the issue in favor of regional normalization and other global crises. For years, actors like the United States and various Arab states pursued economic partnerships and diplomatic ties with Israel while neglecting settlement expansion and Palestinian governance. This approach proved unsustainable, as the current war demonstrates that lasting stability in the Middle East cannot be achieved without directly addressing the conflict's root causes.
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51.
The 2024 collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has fundamentally altered Middle Eastern geopolitics, revealing the fragility of the previous state and the limits of Iranian and Russian influence. This transition creates a volatile environment for regional neighbors like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel, who must now navigate a landscape of both revolutionary opportunity and heightened security threats. Concurrently, the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and shifting U.S. foreign policy priorities further complicate the path toward regional stability. Analysts emphasize that any future political transition must be Syrian-led to address the country's governance crisis and avoid repeating past international policy failures.
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52.
Technology governance has expanded to encompass the online activities and decision-making of governments, the private sector, and civil society, moving beyond a narrow focus on security versus privacy. A critical emerging issue is the significant market dominance of US technology firms coupled with a pervasive lack of consistent international regulation to govern their global operations. Consequently, the resulting regulatory uncertainty and conflicting rules across different jurisdictions present major challenges for developing coherent policy and oversight strategies.
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53.
Global trade is entering a period of 'strategic chaos' characterized by the rise of economic nationalism and the prioritization of national security over traditional free trade principles. The second Trump administration's influence and the weakening of the multilateral trading system are driving a shift toward fragmented supply chains and escalating trade wars. This realignment fundamentally redefines international partnerships, as competition for critical materials and technological dominance challenges global economic stability and climate commitments.
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54.Leadership and representation in international relations: building on women’s legacy (Chatham House)
This panel discussion highlights the significant historical and ongoing contributions of women to international relations and diplomacy, emphasizing the need for continued progress toward gender equity. By examining career paths and the theme of 'Give to Gain', the event aims to inspire and support the next generation of female practitioners and academics. The initiative underscores the strategic importance of diverse representation and allyship in evolving the field of international affairs.
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55.
The upcoming April 2026 Hungarian general election represents a critical juncture as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s long-standing dominance faces a credible challenge from Péter Magyar’s pro-EU TISZA movement. Orbán's tenure has been defined by hardline immigration policies and close ties to Russia, whereas Magyar offers a centrist alternative that could realign Hungary with European Union standards. A potential shift in leadership would not only reshape Hungary’s domestic and foreign policy but also serve as a significant check on the rise of right-wing populism across Europe.
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56.
The House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee is examining the future of UK-US relations amidst a shift toward a more transactional American approach to alliances under the second Trump administration. The inquiry highlights how long-term political trends in the US are reshaping its global outlook, posing significant challenges to the traditional rules-based international order. To navigate this volatile strategic environment, UK policymakers must adapt their foreign, defense, and economic strategies to address shifting US priorities and ensure the continuity of the transatlantic partnership.
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57.
The strategic rivalry between the United States and China is evolving into a comprehensive contest for global influence, technological dominance, and economic security. This competition, spanning industrial policy and defense modernization, is actively fragmenting global supply chains and forcing international actors to reassess their strategic alliances. Consequently, the trajectory of this superpower relationship will define the future of global governance and regional security, requiring policymakers to navigate a landscape where limited cooperation must be balanced against systemic confrontation.
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58.
Ukraine’s sovereignty over its cultural, religious, and linguistic identity is a vital pillar of national security and a prerequisite for achieving a durable peace. Since 2014, Kyiv has sought to dismantle Russian influence through de-communisation laws and the promotion of Ukrainian statehood, counteracting the Kremlin’s efforts to instrumentalize minority rights and religion. The analysis emphasizes that safeguarding cultural heritage is a critical component of national security and recovery. Consequently, Ukraine must align its de-Russification strategy with EU minority rights standards to ensure both long-term stability and successful European integration.
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59.
Iraq’s fragile stability is under significant strain as the escalating US-Israel-Iran war forces the country into a dangerous regional crossfire. The conflict has triggered direct military confrontations between US forces and Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, while simultaneously threatening Iraq’s energy security and oil-dependent economy. With government formation stalled following the 2025 elections, the country’s leadership faces immense pressure to maintain a neutral balancing strategy to prevent external shocks from devolving into domestic collapse.
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60.
The escalating military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran introduces significant geopolitical variables that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that a protracted US entanglement in the Middle East risks diverting critical resources and diplomatic focus away from Kyiv, potentially fracturing Western unity. Conversely, while regional instability might weaken Russia's strategic partnership with Iran, surging oil prices could provide Moscow with a vital financial cushion to sustain its offensive despite international sanctions.
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61.
West Africa's collective security is currently compromised by regional political fragmentation and coups in the central Sahel, which have weakened multilateral frameworks like the G5 Sahel. This breakdown has stalled essential cross-border cooperation on intelligence sharing and joint military operations, despite the transnational nature of the extremist threat. To strengthen security, regional leaders must restore trust and revive regionalism to address the root causes of instability and manage the economic and security interdependence of landlocked and coastal states.
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62.
Kenya’s 2024 foreign policy strategy aims to elevate its role as a regional anchor and a more influential actor in a shifting global order. The strategy balances deep security and economic ties with Western nations alongside a comprehensive partnership with China and growing engagement with emerging actors like the UAE. By navigating regional conflicts in eastern Africa and contributing to multilateral missions such as the one in Haiti, Kenya seeks to leverage its strategic importance for greater international leverage. This proactive approach reflects an effort to diversify alliances and secure national interests within a geopolitically complex environment.
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63.
This session examines the geopolitical fallout from coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, which were conducted with the explicit goal of regime change. Experts analyze Iran's retaliatory capabilities and the potential for domestic uprisings, while assessing the risks of a broader regional conflict involving additional actors. The discussion highlights the urgent need to identify de-escalation pathways to mitigate further destabilization of the Middle East.
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64.The UK critical minerals strategy: Building national resilience through global political and commercial collaboration (Chatham House)
The UK Government is prioritizing the security of critical mineral supply chains as a cornerstone of national economic security and the transition to clean energy. The new Critical Minerals Strategy addresses vulnerabilities arising from intensifying geopolitical competition and rising global demand by focusing on strengthening domestic capability and deepening international partnerships. By balancing national resilience with global collaboration, the strategy aims to maintain the UK's industrial competitiveness in an increasingly contested global minerals landscape.
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65.
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, presents a strategic assessment of the war's evolution and its broader implications for European security. He emphasizes the critical role of 'hard power' and the collaborative efforts between the UK and Ukraine to enhance regional defense and deterrence capabilities. The address argues that defining a common security strategy is vital for both ending the current conflict and ensuring the long-term stability of the European continent.
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66.
This event analysis explores the prospects for democratic change in Belarus following the Lukashenka regime's release of 123 political prisoners as a diplomatic gesture toward the United States. Featuring Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski and activist Maria Kalesnikava, the discussion evaluates the current negotiations between the Trump administration and the Belarusian leadership. The participants emphasize the need for a coherent Western strategy that supports long-term democratic transformation despite the regime's efforts to suppress internal dissent. Ultimately, the dialogue aims to define an effective policy framework that balances geopolitical engagement with a commitment to human rights.
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67.
Chatham House experts argue that President Trump’s approach to peacemaking is defined by a highly personal, transactional "dealmaker" style that prioritizes immediate ceasefires over structural conflict resolution. Utilizing tools like the newly formed "Board of Peace" and "maximum pressure" tactics, the administration seeks high-profile diplomatic wins in regions like Gaza while often oversimplifying complex conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. Analysts warn that these "Band-Aid" solutions typically ignore root causes and bypass traditional multilateral institutions, resulting in outcomes that may lack long-term durability. This shift suggests a future where international stability depends more on personal leverage and coercive threats than on established international law or consensus-driven frameworks.
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68.
Libya remains in a state of political stalemate and economic decline fifteen years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, with rival administrations continuing to contest governance. The Presidency Council is spearheading efforts for national reconciliation and institutional reunification while seeking international cooperation to address organized migration crime and improve economic management. These initiatives aim to mend the country's fractured social fabric and create a path toward long-delayed national elections. The success of these efforts depends on effective mediation between factions and sustained support from the international community to resolve ongoing political divisions.
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69.Defending NATO’s eastern flank: How Romania is responding to Russian aggression and European rearmament (Chatham House)
Romania is positioning itself as a strategic pillar for NATO's eastern flank and Black Sea security by accelerating military modernization and spearheading regional energy independence. Foreign Minister Oana Ţoiu emphasizes the need for a unified international response to Russian hybrid interference and the implementation of criminal penalties for sanction evasion to degrade Russia's military-industrial capabilities. Strategic priorities include enhanced maritime coordination to protect undersea infrastructure and the establishment of a dedicated Black Sea Security Hub to mitigate emerging threats like the 'shadow fleet.'
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70.
Russia’s systematic strikes against Ukraine’s civilian energy grid reached a critical point by February 2026, threatening essential services and aiming to undermine national morale. These high-precision attacks on power, heating, and water infrastructure force the diversion of resources from the battlefield to repairs and risk driving further displacement into Western Europe. Consequently, Ukraine and its partners must prioritize the deployment of decentralized energy solutions and immediate humanitarian aid to bolster economic stability and community resilience against continued strikes.
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71.
The Chatham House conference highlights that global trade can serve as a catalyst for sustainable water management if partnerships prioritize water security and shared resources. Evidence of current climate volatility, such as drought-induced price spikes in commodities and disruptions to major shipping routes, underscores the urgent need for resilient supply chains. To achieve this, the initiative advocates for coordinated international strategies, the integration of water risks into investment decisions, and policy reforms to establish fair water footprints globally.
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72.
The report concludes that existing international legal frameworks, particularly the Rome Statute, are sufficiently technology-neutral to prosecute cyber-enabled war crimes and crimes against humanity without requiring statutory amendments. Success hinges on overcoming practical hurdles such as digital attribution, evidence volatility, and the slow pace of traditional cross-border legal assistance through frameworks like the Budapest Convention. The experts emphasize the necessity of structured public-private partnerships, where technology firms provide the specialized expertise needed for threat detection and evidence preservation. Consequently, states are urged to integrate their domestic cyber and war-crime units and modernize legislation to facilitate joint international investigations into state-sponsored cyber activity.
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73.
Chatham House argues that sustainable security in Haiti requires a phased roadmap prioritizing governance guardrails and the dismantling of the 'coercive marketplace' before scaling military force. Drawing on comparative failures in Libya and Yemen, researchers highlight how gangs have entrenched themselves into the national economy by controlling critical infrastructure and fuel, rendering purely kinetic solutions insufficient. The report warns that the new UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) will only succeed if it is tightly integrated with justice reforms and civilian oversight to prevent a return to the cycle of state capture. Consequently, international strategy must shift toward a Haitian-led security plan supported by a coordinated donors' conference to address the socioeconomic roots of gang recruitment.
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74.
This Chatham House panel analyzes the rise of European populist parties that are successfully repositioning themselves as 'new realists' by capitalizing on electorate dissatisfaction with technocratic governance and mainstream failures. While some leaders like Giorgia Meloni moderate their stances to secure EU funding, others like Jordan Bardella maintain nationalist agendas that threaten European cohesion on energy, defense, and foreign policy. The discussion suggests that the traditional 'cordon sanitaire' is becoming ineffective, requiring centrist parties to directly address voter grievances regarding immigration and sovereignty rather than relying on political isolation. Ultimately, the stability of the European project depends on whether liberal democracies can provide substantive policy alternatives while reinforcing constitutional checks against democratic erosion.
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75.
This discussion explores the shift toward an 'imperial' U.S. foreign policy characterized by the consolidation of executive power and a strategic focus on dominance within the Western Hemisphere. Panelists argue that the administration is prioritizing regional hegemony and domestic political goals—such as border security and drug interdiction—over traditional transatlantic alliances and international law. This transition toward transactional 'commercial diplomacy' and unilateralism is forcing Europe and China to pursue a multipolar, 'leaderless' world and develop independent security mechanisms to counter U.S. economic and political coercion.
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76.
David Miliband argues that the 'New World Disorder' is characterized by a 'crisis of peacemaking' where internationalized civil conflicts and rising impunity have left 240 million people in humanitarian need. He highlights a dangerous 'scissors effect' where soaring demand in the top 20 conflict-affected countries—which also overlap heavily with climate vulnerability—is met by significant cuts in international aid funding. To address this, Miliband advocates for 'Coalitions of the Willing' to bypass diplomatic gridlock and for multilateral institutions like the World Bank to prioritize fragile states by working directly through civil society. This strategic shift requires moving beyond treating symptoms to addressing the political drivers of conflict while integrating climate adaptation as a prerequisite for regional stability.
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77.
This panel discussion explores Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) as a critical horizontal foundation for modern governance, emphasizing that identity, payment, and data exchange systems should be treated as essential public goods. Experts highlight how Global South successes like India’s UPI and Brazil’s Pix demonstrate that open-source, iterative implementation can drastically reduce costs and increase financial inclusion compared to traditional siloed procurement. The discussion concludes that for middle powers like the UK to succeed, they must overcome political distrust and rigid funding models by prioritizing voluntary, high-value use cases and maintaining digital sovereignty through interoperable standards. Therefore, policy strategy should shift toward 'software as infrastructure,' focusing on public interest governance and the long-term cumulative benefits of cross-sectoral digital rails.
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78.
China is proactively constructing a parallel international order centered on a 'security-first' mindset and strategic self-reliance to diminish Western influence. Beijing has systematically inverted economic dependencies, securing its own supply chains for critical resources while establishing significant 'chokeholds' over Western medicine precursors and legacy semiconductors. This fragmentation of the global order increases Western vulnerability to Chinese economic weaponization, requiring a strategic shift toward domestic industrial resilience and middle-power alliances to manage upcoming geopolitical turbulence.
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79.
The Middle East in early 2026 exists in a state of 'stabilization in name only,' where regional actors prioritize pragmatic conflict management over genuine resolution amidst systemic crises in Iran and a fragile ceasefire in Gaza. Analysts argue that the shift toward 'multi-alignment' allows middle powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to hedge against an erratic U.S. foreign policy, though this lacks the depth to resolve underlying legitimacy and governance issues. For policymakers, the primary risk lies in treating this temporary holding pattern as a stable new order, as the absence of a structured peace process and the potential for forced transitions in Iran create dangerous flashpoints.
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80.
The widespread anti-government protests that erupted in Iran in late 2025 have evolved from economic grievances into a sustained movement demanding systemic political change and institutional accountability. Despite government crackdowns and internet blackouts, the persistence of the unrest reveals a deep-seated crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic’s leadership. This shift indicates that traditional methods of state control are increasingly ineffective against a population seeking agency over their political future. Consequently, international and regional actors must prepare for the implications of prolonged internal instability on Middle Eastern security and diplomatic relations.
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81.
The 2026 'Ten Conflicts to Watch' report highlights a global shift toward a 'Donroe Doctrine' of regional spheres of influence, where traditional peacemaking is being replaced by transactional truces and 'might is right' diplomacy. Using the U.S. intervention in Venezuela as a template, the analysis details how international institutions like the UN are being sidelined by regional powers and proxy interests in conflicts ranging from Sudan to Myanmar. These developments imply that while temporary deals may stop the guns, they lack the sustainable peacebuilding components necessary for long-term stability. Strategically, policymakers must adapt to this increasingly lawless environment by seeking new alliances and recognizing the primary leverage now held by regional actors over traditional global mediators.
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82.Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro? (Chatham House)
This Chatham House panel analyzes the 2026 U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro as a pivot toward 'hemispheric imperialism' under a Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, prioritizing unilateral national interests over international law. Experts argue that while the tactical operation was successful, long-term stability remains unlikely due to Venezuela's decrepit infrastructure, entrenched corruption, and the questionable economic viability of its heavy oil in a softening global market. Strategically, the intervention signals a new era of sphere-of-influence geopolitics that challenges the traditional rules-based order and forces European allies to reconsider their security dependence on the United States.
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83.
Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox argues that the zero-sum competition between a technologically dominant China and a norm-rejecting United States under Donald Trump has effectively ended the Western alliance. She cites China's lead in AI and green technology alongside Trump’s disregard for international law and traditional alliances as evidence of a volatile new global order. Consequently, Maddox urges middle powers and former US allies to bolster their own defense, reform global institutions like the IMF and WTO, and proactively uphold liberal values to prevent a total collapse of international stability.
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84.Yemen’s conflict: The Islah Party's evolving role, and vision for a post-war society (Chatham House)
The Islah Party continues to be a central power broker in Yemen, leveraging its status as a major parliamentary bloc and its role in the internationally recognized government to influence the country's political trajectory. The party is currently refining its strategic priorities and regional relationships to adapt to the shifting dynamics of the civil war and the broader Middle East. Consequently, any viable international strategy for a sustainable political settlement in Yemen must integrate Islah’s vision for post-war governance and state structure.
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85.China’s Struggle for Influence in Central Asia. How is Beijing aiming to reshape the region? (Chatham House)
China’s expanding influence in Central Asia is a contested process shaped by local resistance, including grassroots protests and elite pushback, rather than a straightforward expansion of power. Beijing is attempting to reshape the region’s economic and security architecture, forcing Central Asian governments to balance China's role against their relationships with Russia, the US, and the EU. The evolving dynamic suggests that China’s rising security footprint may create friction with Russia, while new U.S. regional policies under the Trump administration add another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.
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86.
The Chatham House Africa Programme provides independent, politically-focused research to offer decision-makers nuanced insights into African states' international relations and internal politics. By prioritizing transparency, accountability, and the rule of law, the programme creates a platform for engagement between African leaders and global policy-makers to address regional challenges. Its work serves as a critical check on commercial political risk consultancies, fostering an environment conducive to sustainable private investment and conflict resolution. Consequently, engaging with the programme enables international actors to better navigate the complexities of African governance while promoting long-term regional stability.
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87.
The Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House provides objective, interdisciplinary analysis of key issues affecting the diverse regions of Asia and the Pacific. Through independent research, expert roundtables, and collaboration with regional partners, the programme seeks to challenge conventional thinking and engage directly with decision-makers. Its primary goal is to ensure that original research informs and influences positive policy decisions in both government and the private sector. By stimulating deeper understanding of the region's rise, the programme addresses fundamental strategic questions that have significant implications for global policy and international relations.
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88.
Chatham House's Environment and Society Centre (ESC) provides multidisciplinary research and policy solutions to address systemic environmental challenges, specifically focusing on the climate transition and sustainable resource management. By integrating its Sustainability Accelerator, the centre combines evidence-based analysis with entrepreneurial experimentation to foster radical shifts in how society utilizes natural resources. The ESC's research emphasizes the geopolitical and local implications of climate change, offering strategic frameworks for decision-makers to build resilience and mitigate resource depletion. Ultimately, its work serves to inform and influence international policy processes through the incubation of innovative sustainability ideas and cross-sector collaboration.
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89.
Chatham House's Europe Programme aims to shape the European policy agenda by providing actionable recommendations on the future of the EU, European security, and Europe's global role. The program investigates how political fragmentation and election results across the continent impact these three strategic pillars between 2024 and 2027. By connecting extensive EU and NATO expertise with localized insights, the initiative assists policymakers in navigating complex geopolitical transitions and safeguarding regional stability.
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90.
The Global Economy and Finance Programme at Chatham House translates independent economic analysis into practical policy insights through original research and high-level convening of policymakers and business leaders. Its research focuses on critical global challenges including G7/G20 governance, climate change economics, international trade, and the evolution of the monetary system. By bridging the gap between researchers and practitioners, the program aims to provide timely recommendations for navigating complex international finance and debt issues.
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91.
The Global Governance and Security Centre at Chatham House analyzes how international rules and norms must evolve as the post-1945 world order faces challenges from state aggression and geopolitical competition. It examines critical issues such as perceptions of double standards in global responses and the rise of transactional diplomacy, while emphasizing the need to include voices from the Global South and middle powers in decision-making. By integrating expertise in international law, digital societies, and health security, the centre provides research to reform global institutions and develop new frameworks for future governance to enhance collective security.
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92.
The Chatham House Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Programme provides expert analysis and field-based research on overlooked regional issues to influence policy and strategy. It focuses on critical areas such as geopolitical dynamics, transnational conflict, and state-society relations to offer new frameworks for understanding ground realities. The programme's activities, including convening decision-makers and publishing multilingual analysis, aim to inform international and regional policy responses to MENA's evolving challenges.
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93.
Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Programme provides expert analysis on the sovereignty and divergent political trajectories of Russia, Ukraine, and Soviet successor states. The initiative focuses on the seismic impacts of Russia's invasion, examining Ukraine's internal resilience, reconstruction, and the broader regional geopolitical shifts. Through substantiated research and expert convening, the program aims to bolster global security and stability by informing international policy and public discourse.
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94.
The UK in the World Programme at Chatham House argues that the UK must adapt its foreign policy to a multipolar world characterized by shifting alliances and the rising influence of China and the Global South. By analyzing the intersection of domestic stability and international strategy, the program emphasizes that fixing internal economic and public service issues is critical to maintaining Britain's global influence. It recommends that the government leverage the UK's position as an influential mid-sized power and global broker to navigate complex challenges in economic security, science, and international development.
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95.
The Chatham House US and North America Programme evaluates the region's shifting role in global affairs to provide strategic guidance for governments and the private sector in the UK and Europe. By focusing on critical themes such as the US-China competition and the renegotiation of global trade, the programme identifies enduring features of American policy that are likely to persist beyond 2028. These insights are intended to help international stakeholders navigate a period of global recalibration and adjust their own security and economic strategies accordingly.
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96.
This article advocates for a robust U.S. strategy to support Iranian protesters, arguing that the current unrest presents a unique opportunity to topple the Islamic Republic and strike a blow against Chinese influence. The author contends that the regime's military weakness, exposed by recent U.S. strikes, and its economic failure have emboldened the populace despite Chinese-designed internet suppression tools. To assist the uprising, the piece suggests utilizing kinetic and cyberattacks against Iran's National Information Network to restore protester communications. Successfully weakening Tehran would undermine Beijing’s regional energy access and strategic foothold in the Middle East.
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97.
The article contends that the Trump administration must initially assert federal supremacy through the Insurrection Act to dismantle local obstruction of immigration enforcement. It points to escalating violence and non-cooperation from municipal leaders in sanctuary cities as evidence that traditional ICE operations have become high-risk 'PR traps.' To sustain long-term mass deportation goals, the author suggests transitioning to a technology-centric approach that utilizes AI, facial recognition, and inter-agency data sharing to identify targets more subtly and efficiently. This strategy aims to bypass media-driven optics while restoring the normalization of federal law enforcement across the country.
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98.
The report argues that the downsizing and potential closure of the U.S. Department of Education presents an opportunity to return educational authority to states and local communities, thereby reducing federal administrative burdens. Evidence suggests that federal regulations currently drain millions of man-hours into paperwork without demonstrably improving student achievement. To navigate this transition, the authors recommend converting Title I and IDEA funding into flexible state block grants or student-specific micro-savings accounts while empowering states to set their own academic goals. Consequently, state officials must proactively audit federal fund usage and utilize waivers to secure autonomy over curriculum, assessment, and civil rights standards.
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99.
The Heritage Foundation argues that the decline of marriage and birthrates represents the most significant existential threat to America’s future, as population growth is projected to reverse by 2030. Citing CBO data and social science, the report asserts that traditional family structures are the primary drivers of national wealth, health, and stability. To counter this demographic collapse, Heritage proposes policy interventions including the elimination of welfare marriage penalties, new tax credits for families, and direct government incentives to prioritize married family formation.
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100.
This Heritage Foundation report argues that restoring the traditional married family is an existential necessity for American stability and economic growth over the next 250 years. Citing record-low fertility rates and the erosion of marriage due to 1960s-era welfare 'marriage penalties,' the authors present evidence that children in intact, married-parent households achieve significantly better economic and social outcomes. To reverse these trends, the report proposes a 'whole-of-government' strategy featuring new financial incentives, such as the Family and Marriage (FAM) tax credit and Newlywed Early Starters Trust (NEST) accounts, to actively privilege marriage and at-home parenting over alternative arrangements.
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101.
South Korea has emerged as a pivotal defense supplier for European nations, filling critical gaps in the continent's expanding military requirements amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics. The report identifies key drivers such as South Korea's robust manufacturing capacity, competitive pricing, and willingness to share technology, which have facilitated major contracts with countries like Poland. These developments signify a shift in global defense procurement, potentially deepening strategic ties between Seoul and European capitals while positioning South Korea as a vital middle-power security partner.
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102.
The research paper identifies a significant gap in systematic planning within maritime Southeast Asian capitals concerning a potential US-China conflict over Taiwan, noting that current discussions are largely limited to evacuation contingencies. Given ASEAN’s structural collective-action issues, the author advocates for a 'building blocks' approach that strengthens domestic crisis capacity and leverages bilateral relations with the US, China, and Taiwan for preliminary planning. This strategy emphasizes enhancing existing mechanisms and developing minilateral arrangements to ensure a functional regional response architecture during major security crises.
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103.
Maritime Southeast Asian states are exploring anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies to secure their interests during major power conflicts, yet their current development remains rudimentary and lacks systematic planning. The paper identifies a persistent disconnect between strategic policy debates concerning regional flashpoints and the actual implementation of military doctrine, posture, and asset acquisition. Diverse security priorities and internal institutional constraints, such as army dominance in policymaking, continue to hinder the realization of full A2/AD capabilities. Consequently, the future trajectory of these capabilities will determine how these nations manage regional contingencies and coordinate with security partners seeking closer interoperability.
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104.
This IISS report argues that maritime crime in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore persists despite intensive monitoring because deterrence is spatially uneven and highly localized. Spatial analysis of data from 2007–2025 reveals that incidents cluster within 50 nautical miles of security infrastructure, showing that offenders adapt to predictable patrol patterns in narrow waterways. Consequently, the study suggests that regional security efforts should shift from attempting to eliminate crime toward a risk-management approach that prioritizes operational flexibility and reducing surveillance blind spots.
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105.Lawless Seas Contested Shores Piracy Smuggling And The Scramble For Port Access In The Horn Of Africa (IISS)
The IISS report argues that maritime insecurity in the Horn of Africa is resurgent, driven by persistent governance failures in Somalia and exploited by regional and global powers competing for port access. Evidence includes the rise in piracy since late 2023—aided by the distraction of Houthi attacks—and the entrenchment of sophisticated arms-smuggling networks between Yemen and the Horn. Consequently, international stakeholders must navigate a volatile geopolitical landscape where local actors leverage foreign military and commercial interests, potentially exacerbating regional tensions like the Somaliland-Somalia rift.
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106.Cloud Adoption For National Security And Defence Purposes Four Case Studies From The Asia Pacific (IISS)
The IISS research paper argues that cloud computing is now a fundamental requirement for national security and defense in the Asia-Pacific, providing the scalable infrastructure necessary to turn vast data volumes into strategic advantages. By examining Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the study reveals that nations are successfully balancing the need for commercial innovation from global hyperscalers with sovereign control through tailored hybrid and closed cloud solutions. Ultimately, the report concludes that digital sovereignty is achieved through the effective governance and secure leveraging of infrastructure rather than isolation, which is critical for maintaining decision-making advantages in contested environments.
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107.
The European Union is rapidly expanding its influence over the European defense market through massive funding increases and new industrial instruments like the €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE). While these initiatives aim to bolster regional capabilities, they impose strict participation criteria that likely restrict market access for third-country suppliers. However, a significant surge in national defense spending by member states provides a parallel procurement path that may bypass some Commission-led restrictions. Consequently, third-country participation is expected to become increasingly transactional, contingent on specific contributions to the EU's strategic defense-industrial goals.
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108.Exploring Opportunities For European Rearmament Through Ukraines Experience And Indo Pacific Partnerships (IISS)
The report analyzes Ukraine’s successful scaling of defense production through sectoral restructuring and battlefield-driven innovation during high-intensity warfare. It highlights Kyiv's strategic shift toward resilient sourcing and the critical role of Indo-Pacific partners like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in replacing adversarial supply chains. These findings suggest that European defense-industrial planning must prioritize supply chain diversification and rapid technological adaptation to ensure long-term resilience. Ultimately, the Ukrainian experience provides a blueprint for modern rearmament that integrates global partnerships and flexible industrial strategies.
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109.
The SAFE Regulation establishes a €150 billion loan mechanism to bolster EU defense industries, yet its strict requirements for local production and design authority significantly limit participation from non-EU suppliers. IISS research highlights that the 35% cap on non-EU components and the mandate for design authority transfer create insurmountable hurdles for close allies, exemplified by the UK’s withdrawal from negotiations and Canada's late-stage entry. Consequently, the policy may undermine long-standing security partnerships, reduce military interoperability, and delay the deployment of innovative defense solutions within the European market.
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110.
The Mitchell Institute's China Airpower Tracker highlights the rapid transformation of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) from a regional defensive service into a sophisticated force capable of projecting power beyond the First Island Chain. By integrating advanced aircraft, uncrewed systems, and mobile long-range surface-to-air missiles across five theater commands, China has significantly enhanced its aerial combat and denial capabilities. This tool provides a visualization of PLAAF airbases and SAM sites, emphasizing the strategic importance of China's road-mobile assets and their implications for survivability and power projection in a potential conflict.
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111.
The Mitchell Institute argues that the U.S. Air Force requires significant investment in long-range, stealthy penetrating airpower to effectively deny adversaries operational sanctuaries. It asserts that decades of force cuts and deferred modernization have degraded combat capacity, leaving the service unable to simultaneously meet multiple strategic defense objectives. Consequently, scaling these advanced capabilities is presented as a critical national choice necessary to maintain deterrence and ensure victory in future conflicts.
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112.
The Mitchell Institute asserts that space superiority is a foundational requirement for U.S. military operations, currently threatened by advancing Chinese and Russian counterspace capabilities. To mitigate these risks, the paper argues that the Department of Defense must clarify institutional roles and prioritize cross-domain investments to improve the survivability of the U.S. space architecture. Furthermore, the institute recommends a cultural shift towards treating space as a true warfighting domain, necessitating the integration of contested space scenarios into major military training exercises. These reforms are considered urgent to ensure the United States can maintain its strategic advantage in a linchpin domain.
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113.
The Mitchell Institute report warns that the U.S. Air Force airlift system currently lacks the capacity and specific aircraft mix required to sustain combat operations against a peer competitor in highly contested environments. The analysis highlights that decades of underfunding and the geographical expanse of the Indo-Pacific have severely degraded the nation's mobility enterprise, posing a significant risk to global military operations. Consequently, the author advocates for immediate, multi-year investments to expand fleet capacity and restore the strategic mobility backbone essential for national defense.
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114.A Broader Look at Dynamic Space Operations: Creating Multi-Dimensional Dilemmas for Adversaries (Mitchell)
The Mitchell Institute emphasizes the urgent need for the United States to adopt Dynamic Space Operations (DSO) to counter growing threats in the space domain. Transitioning from static, legacy systems to a maneuver-based approach will enhance the resilience and effectiveness of the military's space architecture. By creating compounding problems and multi-dimensional dilemmas for adversaries, DSO strengthens the nation’s deterrent posture and maintains the strategic initiative. Failure to accelerate these capabilities risks losing U.S. space superiority, which is foundational to all joint operations.
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115.Winning the Next War: Overcoming the U.S. Air Force’s Capacity, Capability, and Readiness Crisis (Mitchell)
The Mitchell Institute report warns that the U.S. Air Force faces an existential national security crisis, characterizing the service as the oldest, smallest, and least ready in its history. The authors argue that these capacity and readiness shortfalls significantly undermine the ability to deter aggression and prevail in potential peer conflicts. To address this, the study recommends increasing the Air Force budget and shifting funds from research and development into procurement and operations to prioritize immediate combat readiness. Failure to reverse these declines risks catastrophic human and material losses in future major conflicts.
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116.Aerospace Power Facts & Figures The Mitchell Institute’s research studies, policy reports, and forum papers. (Mitchell)
The Mitchell Institute’s research emphasizes that U.S. aerospace power is currently facing strategic and budgetary challenges comparable to those of the Cold War era. The analysis argues that the Air Force budget may be insufficient to maintain the technological and operational edge necessary for modern power projection, especially as the domain becomes increasingly information-centric. Key evidence points to a disconnect between federal defense spending priorities and the actual requirements for sustaining a dominant aerospace force. These findings imply that without a significant shift in policy and investment, the U.S. risks losing its primary tactical and strategic advantages in future conflicts.
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117.In the News & Commentary The Mitchell Institute’s editorials, media articles featuring Mitchell expertise, and other content. (Mitchell)
The Mitchell Institute highlights that the ongoing conflict with Iran, specifically Operation Epic Fury, underscores the decisive role of space and cyber capabilities in modern high-intensity combat. These 'invisible' forces were instrumental in enabling strikes against over 1,000 targets, demonstrating the strategic advantage of multi-domain integration. However, the reports also highlight the inherent risks of complex air operations, as seen in a significant friendly fire incident between Kuwaiti and U.S. forces. Policy focus must therefore balance the pursuit of technological dominance in non-kinetic domains with rigorous improvements in multi-national tactical coordination.