The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
Yemen’s conflict: The Islah Party's evolving role, and vision for a post-war society
English Summary
Chatham House frames Yemen’s Islah Party as a durable, central political actor whose influence has persisted through the civil war and will likely matter in any post-war settlement. The event description highlights Islah’s institutional weight—one of Yemen’s largest parties, the second-largest parliamentary bloc, and a participant in the internationally recognized government—as evidence that it remains embedded in formal politics despite conflict fragmentation. It argues that understanding Islah’s ties with regional and international actors is essential to assessing its strategy, bargaining power, and approach to state restructuring. For policymakers, the implication is that viable peace and governance planning should treat Islah as a necessary stakeholder, while testing whether its stated vision can support an inclusive and sustainable political order.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）將葉門伊斯拉赫黨界定為一個具韌性且居於核心地位的政治行為者；其影響力在內戰期間持續存在，並很可能在任何戰後政治安排中發揮關鍵作用。該活動說明指出，伊斯拉赫黨的制度性分量——作為葉門最大政黨之一、國會第二大黨團，且為國際承認政府的參與者——顯示其儘管面對衝突碎片化，仍深嵌於正式政治體系。內容主張，要評估伊斯拉赫黨的戰略、談判籌碼與國家重組取向，必須理解其與區域及國際行為者的連結。對政策制定者而言，其含意在於：可行的和平與治理規劃應將伊斯拉赫黨視為必要利害關係人，同時檢驗其所宣示的願景是否足以支撐包容且可持續的政治秩序。
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