The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What will 2026 bring for US migration policy?
English Summary
The article argues that current U.S. immigration policies focused solely on deterrence are causing significant economic damage, including negative net migration and a $50 billion reduction in consumer spending. It highlights how aggressive enforcement and the closure of legal pathways have resulted in severe labor shortages across agriculture, engineering, and healthcare sectors. Brookings suggests that a balanced approach—combining credible enforcement with expanded lawful pathways and regional diplomacy—is necessary to manage migration sustainably. The analysis concludes that 2026 requires a shift toward modernizing the visa system and reforming asylum processes to ensure long-term economic stability and border order.
中文摘要
本文主張，目前美國僅採取威懾手段的移民政策正造成重大的經濟損失，包括淨遷移人口負成長，以及消費者支出減少達 500 億美元。報告強調，激進的執法措施與合法入境管道的關閉，已導致農業、工程和醫療照護產業面臨嚴峻的勞動力短缺。布魯金斯學會（Brookings）建議應採取平衡策略，將具公信力的執法與擴大合法管道及區域外交相結合，方能實現永續的移民管理。分析結論指出，2026 年必須轉向推動簽證制度現代化並改革庇護程序，以確保長期經濟穩定與邊境秩序。
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