The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
US foreign policy
English Summary
Chatham House argues that US global influence remains substantial but is increasingly perceived as declining, particularly in economic terms, as China, India and Russia gain weight. The analysis points to policy volatility and experimentation across major dossiers, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and relations with the EU, Russia and North Korea. At the same time, persistent transnational challenges such as trade, climate change, nuclear risk and terrorism are presented as areas where US engagement is still indispensable. The strategic implication is that Washington’s credibility will depend less on unilateral dominance and more on consistent, coalition-based leadership in managing shared global risks.
中文摘要
研究所認為，美國的全球影響力仍然可觀，但外界愈發認為其影響力正在下降，尤其在經濟層面；與此同時，中國、印度與俄羅斯的分量上升。分析指出，美國在多項重大議題上的政策呈現波動與試驗性調整，包括《跨太平洋夥伴協定》、巴黎氣候協定、伊朗核協議，以及與歐盟、俄羅斯和北韓的關係。與此同時，貿易、氣候變遷、核風險與恐怖主義等持續性的跨國挑戰，仍被視為美國參與不可或缺的領域。其戰略意涵在於：華盛頓的可信度將較少取決於單邊主導，而更取決於能否以一致且以聯盟為基礎的領導方式，管理共同的全球風險。
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