The article outlines how a successful modern foreign policy career requires blending traditional diplomatic expertise with private sector acumen. Juster's career trajectory—from international law to high-stakes diplomacy (e.g., the Gulf War) and subsequently to the technology sector—demonstrates this synthesis. Key evidence includes his work managing complex negotiations under duress and his involvement in co-founding the U.S.-India High Technology Group. The implication for policy is that effective geopolitical strategy must actively integrate private sector knowledge and technological considerations to manage modern economic and security challenges.
Four reasons Trump’s economic agenda hasn’t tanked the economy
English Summary
The article examines why the U.S. economy remains resilient despite significant policy shocks from President Trump’s second-term agenda, including high tariffs, sharp immigration cuts, and attacks on Federal Reserve independence. It identifies four potential explanations: the shocks may be overestimated in scale, offsetting stimuli like the AI boom are providing support, traditional economic models may understate the economy's inherent diversity, or the full negative impacts are simply delayed. However, metrics such as rising unemployment and risk premia suggest a gradual deterioration, implying that long-term stability is not guaranteed if these pressures persist.
中文摘要
本文探討儘管面臨川普總統第二任期議程帶來的重大政策衝擊（包括高關稅、大幅削減移民以及對聯準會獨立性的攻擊），美國經濟為何仍展現韌性。研究指出四個潛在解釋：衝擊規模可能被高估、人工智慧熱潮等抵銷性刺激提供了支撐、傳統經濟模型可能低估了經濟固有的多樣性，或是全面的負面影響尚未完全顯現。然而，失業率上升與風險溢價等指標顯示經濟正逐步惡化，暗示若這些壓力持續，長期穩定將難以維持。
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