ThinkTankWeekly

The New Khamenei

Foreign Affairs | 2026-03-13 | middle_east

Topics: Middle East, United States

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English Summary

The succession of the Iranian Supreme Leader is portrayed as a forced effort to maintain continuity rather than a stable, merit-based decision. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes that severely damaged the regime's military and clerical leadership, the Assembly of Experts was compelled to select Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, out of sheer necessity. This emergency succession process underscores the profound vulnerability of the Islamic Republic's leadership structure. Strategically, this suggests that the regime remains highly fragile and susceptible to external pressure, complicating long-term regional stability.

中文摘要

伊朗最高領袖的繼承被描繪為一場為了維持連續性而被迫的努力,而非一個穩定且基於功績的決定。在美國和以色列的打擊嚴重損害了該政權的軍事和神職領導層之後,專家議會被迫出於純粹的必要性,選出了哈梅內義的兒子穆賈塔巴。這一緊急的繼承過程凸顯了伊斯蘭共和國領導結構的深刻脆弱性。從戰略角度來看,這表明該政權依然極度不穩固,且容易受到外部壓力,從而使長期區域穩定局勢更加複雜。

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