While the war in Ukraine may reach an inflection point and Russian forces are struggling, the article argues that Russia remains the primary long-term threat to European security regardless of the conflict's outcome. This assessment is based on the fact that despite internal weaknesses—such as a stagnating economy and poor demographics—Russia retains the capability and vested interest in destabilizing Europe’s existing security architecture. Policymakers must therefore prepare for sustained, multi-faceted Russian pressure and potential military reconstitution efforts, rather than focusing solely on immediate battlefield victories or defeats.
The Curse of Middle-Sized Wars
English Summary
The article posits that democratic nations are structurally optimized for two extremes of conflict: small, professional 'little wars' or massive, total wars requiring full societal mobilization. The core finding is that democracies face a unique strategic vulnerability when confronted with 'middle-sized wars.' These conflicts are sufficiently destructive to cause immense bloodshed but are too limited to necessitate the full commitment of the home front, creating a profound dilemma. This structural mismatch suggests that modern democracies may be poorly equipped to manage conflicts that fall between the spectrum of limited and total warfare, impacting strategic planning and military readiness.
中文摘要
本文提出，民主國家在結構上僅針對兩種極端的衝突類型進行優化：即小型、專業化的「小規模戰爭」，或是需要全面社會動員的大規模「全面戰爭」。核心發現指出，當民主國家面對「中等規模戰爭」時，會面臨一種獨特的戰略弱點。這類衝突的破壞力足以造成巨大傷亡，但其範圍又過於有限，無法觸發動員整個後方的必要性，從而產生了深刻的兩難困境。這種結構性不匹配暗示，現代民主國家可能難以應對介於有限戰爭與全面戰爭之間的衝突，這將對戰略規劃和軍事準備狀態產生影響。
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