The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What the Trump-Xi Summit Won’t Solve
English Summary
Despite the public appearance of stabilization, the summit failed to resolve fundamental structural disputes between the U.S. and China, suggesting the competition remains deeply entrenched. Key issues, particularly Taiwan, trade imbalances, and geopolitical rivalry, were merely 'kicked down the road' through diplomatic rhetoric of 'strategic stability.' The analysis suggests that China is unlikely to make major concessions, viewing them as signs of weakness, meaning the relationship will continue to be managed through guarded competition rather than genuine cooperation. Policymakers must therefore anticipate persistent friction points and maintain vigilance regarding unresolved flashpoints to navigate the ongoing great power rivalry.
中文摘要
儘管表面上呈現穩定跡象，但此次峰會未能解決美中之間根本性的結構性爭議，顯示出競爭依然根深蒂固。關鍵議題，特別是台灣問題、貿易失衡和地緣政治競爭，僅透過「戰略穩定」的外交辭令被「擱置」延後處理。分析指出，中國不太可能做出重大讓步，因為其視此為軟弱的表現，這意味著雙邊關係將持續以謹慎的競爭模式管理，而非真正的合作。因此，政策制定者必須預期持續存在的摩擦點，並對未解決的爆點保持高度警惕，才能應對正在進行的大國競爭。
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