The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
What will happen when Trump meets Xi?
English Summary
Brookings analysts anticipate a summit between Trump and Xi with low expectations, characterized by a fragile relationship and a desire to avoid escalation rather than achieve significant breakthroughs. While both leaders seek to maintain a trade truce and avoid conflict, risks remain, particularly concerning tariff restorations and potential shifts in U.S. policy on Taiwan. The meeting's significance lies in its role as a crucial communication channel to prevent miscalculation, and there's a potential for discussions on AI safety and cooperation, though deeper issues like talent competition and fentanyl remain unresolved.
中文摘要
布魯金斯智庫分析師預期，特朗普與習近平之間的峰會將以低期望值展開，中美關係脆弱，雙方更希望避免局勢升級，而非追求重大突破。儘管兩位領導人都力求維持貿易休戰並避免衝突，但風險依然存在，尤其是在關稅恢復和美國對台灣政策可能轉變方面。此次會議的重要性在於其作為關鍵溝通渠道，有助於防止誤判。同時，人工智能安全與合作議題可能成為討論焦點，但人才競爭和芬太尼等深層次問題仍將懸而未決。
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