The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
The Case for a Grand Bargain Between America and China
English Summary
The article argues that the United States and China are uniquely positioned to forge a 'grand bargain' to stabilize the global order, shifting from ideological confrontation to productive coexistence. This opportunity is driven by the recognition that both nations benefit from a multipolar world and are deeply economically interdependent. To prevent a high-risk conflict, the policy strategy must pivot toward pragmatic cooperation, requiring the reform of the international system. Implementing this bargain necessitates establishing reciprocal agreements on trade, technology, and security to ensure peaceful power sharing and mutual benefit.
中文摘要
本文論述美國和中國處於獨特的地位，有潛力達成一項「重大共識」（grand bargain），從意識形態對抗轉向建設性共存，從而穩定全球秩序。這一機遇源於雙方都認識到，雙方都受益於一個多極化世界，並且在經濟上具有深厚的相互依賴性。為避免高風險衝突，政策戰略必須轉向務實合作，這要求國際體系進行改革。實施這一共識，有必要在貿易、技術和安全等領域建立互惠協議，以確保和平的權力分享和共同利益。
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