Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
How to Win the Shadow War With Russia
English Summary
Russia's conflict is evolving beyond traditional hybrid operations, escalating into a comprehensive 'shadow war' aimed at destabilizing the entire continent. This campaign involves increasingly nakedly kinetic attacks targeting critical infrastructure and populations within NATO borders, indicating a shift from mere persuasion to outright destruction. Policymakers must recognize this strategic escalation, as Moscow's objective is no longer limited to Ukraine but is designed to dismantle the collective will and physical capacity of European adversaries. Counter-strategies must therefore address this direct, destructive warfare rather than solely focusing on diplomatic or informational countermeasures.
中文摘要
俄羅斯衝突已超越傳統的混合戰術，升級為一場旨在瓦解整個大陸的全面「影子戰爭」。此一戰役涉及日益赤裸的動能攻擊，目標是針對北約境內的關鍵基礎設施和人口，顯示其已從單純的說服轉向徹底的破壞。政策制定者必須認識到這一戰略升級，因為莫斯科的目標已不再局限於烏克蘭，而是旨在瓦解歐洲敵對方的集體意志和實體能力。因此，反制策略必須應對這種直接的、破壞性的戰爭，而非僅專注於外交或資訊層面的對策。
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