The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Is China’s military as strong as it looks?
English Summary
The analysis concludes that despite ongoing high-level purges, China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undergoing a massive, deliberate, and highly successful modernization effort, making it a formidable military force. Key evidence points to the PLA's exponential growth in budget and capabilities—including missile, cyber, and maritime assets—and the purges themselves are viewed as Xi Jinping's serious effort to ensure the military's absolute loyalty to the Party and to him. Strategically, this indicates that China is building a force capable of presenting challenges to the U.S. military that have not been seen since World War II, necessitating a serious reassessment of US Indo-Pacific military policy.
中文摘要
分析結論指出，儘管持續進行高層整肅，中國人民解放軍（PLA）仍正在經歷一場大規模、有意識且高度成功的現代化努力，使其成為一支強大的軍事力量。關鍵證據顯示，解放軍的預算和能力呈指數級增長——包括飛彈、網路和海軍資產——而這些整肅行為本身則被視為習近平確保軍隊絕對忠於黨和個人的嚴肅舉措。從戰略角度來看，這表明中國正在建立一支有能力對美國軍隊構成挑戰的武力，這種挑戰自第二次世界大戰以來未見，有必要對美國的印太軍事政策進行嚴肅的重新評估。
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