The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Report to Congress on Russia’s Nuclear Weapons
English Summary
Russia maintains a vast and rapidly modernizing nuclear arsenal, which it uses to deter Western military intervention and challenge U.S. strategic superiority. Key evidence points to Russia's diversification into dual-capable systems, hypersonic glide vehicles, and counter-space weapons, complicating traditional deterrence. These novel capabilities severely challenge U.S. ability to detect and characterize an inbound attack, particularly following the expiration of the New START Treaty. Consequently, the report advises Congress to urgently reassess U.S. deterrence and risk reduction policies, including considering future arms control frameworks.
中文摘要
俄羅斯維持著龐大且快速現代化的核武庫，並利用其威懾西方軍事干預，挑戰美國的戰略優勢。關鍵證據指出，俄羅斯正多元化發展具備雙用途能力的系統、高超音速滑翔載具和反太空武器，使傳統威懾機制日益複雜。這些新型能力嚴重挑戰了美國偵測和識別來襲攻擊的能力，尤其是在《新《裁軍條約》（New START Treaty））到期之後。因此，本報告建議國會緊急重新評估美國的威懾和風險降低政策，包括考慮制定未來的軍備控制框架。
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