Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
The Price of Peace in Ukraine
English Summary
The article argues that the initial Western objective of restoring Ukraine's full pre-2022 sovereignty over all internationally recognized territory has become strategically implausible. This shift in goal is attributed to the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, which forced Western leaders to concede a new reality. Consequently, policy and strategy must pivot away from demanding full territorial restoration and instead focus on a more pragmatic, negotiated settlement that accepts Russia's de facto control over occupied regions. This suggests a necessary re-evaluation of victory conditions for international support.
中文摘要
本文論述，西方最初旨在恢復烏克蘭在所有國際承認領土上完全的、戰前2022年的主權目標，已在戰略上難以實現。這種目標轉變歸因於烏克蘭2023年反攻的失敗，迫使西方領導人不得不承認新的現實。因此，政策和戰略必須從要求完全恢復領土轉向，轉而著重於一個更務實的、協商的解決方案，該方案必須接受俄羅斯在佔領地區的實際控制。這暗示了國際支持的「勝利條件」需要進行必要的重新評估。
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