ThinkTankWeekly

The Price of Peace in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs | 2026-02-16 | defense

Topics: Russia, Ukraine

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

The article argues that the initial Western objective of restoring Ukraine's full pre-2022 sovereignty over all internationally recognized territory has become strategically implausible. This shift in goal is attributed to the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, which forced Western leaders to concede a new reality. Consequently, policy and strategy must pivot away from demanding full territorial restoration and instead focus on a more pragmatic, negotiated settlement that accepts Russia's de facto control over occupied regions. This suggests a necessary re-evaluation of victory conditions for international support.

中文摘要

本文論述,西方最初旨在恢復烏克蘭在所有國際承認領土上完全的、戰前2022年的主權目標,已在戰略上難以實現。這種目標轉變歸因於烏克蘭2023年反攻的失敗,迫使西方領導人不得不承認新的現實。因此,政策和戰略必須從要求完全恢復領土轉向,轉而著重於一個更務實的、協商的解決方案,該方案必須接受俄羅斯在佔領地區的實際控制。這暗示了國際支持的「勝利條件」需要進行必要的重新評估。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-09-18 | health | 2026-W38 | Topics: AI, China, United States

    The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the DRC serves as a critical warning that the global health security system is fundamentally unprepared for future biological threats. The difficulty in containing this outbreak is compounded by the rising risk of emerging pathogens and the growing potential for AI misuse in bioweapon development. Policy must therefore shift from reactive, crisis-driven funding to sustained, proactive investment in resilient public health infrastructure, particularly in conflict zones. Addressing this requires strengthening global surveillance, ensuring consistent international cooperation, and mitigating the intersection of conflict, climate change, and disease spread.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  2. 2.
    2026-09-18 | defense | 2026-W38 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  3. 3.
    2026-09-18 | economy | 2026-W38 | Topics: China, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    Congress has significantly expanded presidential tariff authority by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, allowing the executive to impose up to 100% tariffs on key buyers of Russian energy and sanctions enablers. The article argues that this legislation represents a dangerous abdication of Congress's Article I authority, as it grants the executive vast, discretionary power without specifying criteria for enforcement. Historically, the executive could claim tariffs were its own doing; however, by writing and passing this new authority, Congress now owns the resulting trade policy and its economic consequences. This shift implies that future tariffs will be viewed by the public as a direct legislative action, potentially undermining the administration's credibility and creating political vulnerability.

    Read at CATO

  4. 4.
    2026-09-17 | economy | 2026-W38 | Topics: Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

    Cuba is on a trajectory toward an accelerating state and economic collapse, risking a point of no return. The state is deteriorating into "authoritarian anarchy," retaining its capacity for political repression but losing the ability to provide basic public services like health and safety. Economically, while the private sector is growing, this expansion is highly unequal, fueling cronyism and widening class gaps between the elite and the poor. If the current trend continues, the country risks calcifying these defects into a dysfunctional baseline, severely diminishing the chances of a stable, democratic transition.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  5. 5.
    2026-09-17 | europe | 2026-W38 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia

    The article analyzes Finland's agreement to coordinate its conventional forces with French nuclear capabilities, clarifying that no nuclear weapons will be stationed in Finland. The author argues that increased communication between nuclear powers, rather than the deployment of weapons, is beneficial for reducing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation, particularly near Russia. For Europe, the policy recommendation is a responsible middle course: strengthening non-nuclear military capabilities to deter Russia while simultaneously negotiating a stable system, such as non-aligned buffer states. This approach is presented as a diplomatic alternative to both aggressive military action and surrender.

    Read at CATO