The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and global energy security
English Summary
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to plunge the global energy system into an acute crisis, with repercussions extending far beyond surging oil and gas prices. The immediate evidence shows cascading economic failures, including flight cancellations, fuel rationing, and mandatory government fiscal revisions. Birol stresses that global economic stability is highly precarious, depending on de-escalation between major regional powers. Policymakers must urgently reassess energy security strategies, determining if the crisis will accelerate the energy transition or cause a significant global derailment.
中文摘要
霍爾木茲海峽的有效封閉，威脅著將全球能源系統推入一場嚴峻的危機，其影響遠超油氣價格的飆升。眼前的證據顯示，經濟衰退呈連鎖反應，包括航班取消、燃料配給，以及政府強制進行財政修訂。Birol 強調，全球經濟穩定性極為脆弱，其命脈取決於主要區域大國之間的降級升級。政策制定者必須緊急重新評估能源安全戰略，以確定這場危機究竟會加速能源轉型，還是會引發重大的全球崩潰。
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