The article argues that the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike decision, while justifiable on inflation grounds, highlights a critical lack of an underlying, transparent policy framework. The core problem is that the Fed's decisions appear discretionary, leading to market uncertainty because the committee's judgment, rather than clear data, dictates policy shifts. The author proposes that the Fed adopt a formal monetary policy rule—an algebraic formula linking the target rate to indicators like inflation and unemployment—to replace subjective guidance. Implementing such a rule would provide market predictability, enhance transparency, and shield the Fed from political attacks by making deviations from the standard easily quantifiable.
Israel’s perpetual mobilization: The limits of Netanyahu’s ‘Super-Sparta’ model
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that Israel's attempt to institutionalize a permanent state of low-intensity warfare, dubbed the 'Super-Sparta' model, is fundamentally unsustainable. This model is challenged by both internal and external realities: politically, the government is facing domestic fatigue due to its inability to deliver decisive end-states in conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah. Strategically, the vision is limited by a severe manpower crisis and economic strain, as the current infrastructure cannot support continuous military readiness. Consequently, the article implies that the long-term viability of Israel's current security policy requires significant socio-economic restructuring or a strategic pivot away from perpetual conflict.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，以色列試圖將永久性的低強度戰爭制度化，即所謂的「超級斯巴達」模式，從根本上是不可持續的。此模式面臨內外部兩方面的挑戰：在政治層面，由於無法在與伊朗和葉門的衝突中達成決定性的終局狀態，政府正遭受國內疲勞；在戰略層面，其願景受到嚴重的戰力短缺和經濟壓力所限制，目前的基礎設施無法支持持續的軍事戰備狀態。因此，本文暗示，以色列現行安全政策的長期可行性，需要進行重大的社會經濟結構重組，或必須戰略性地轉向擺脫常態衝突的局面。
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