Despite significant damage to its naval fleet, shipyards, and production facilities from recent strikes, Iran is expected to quickly reconstitute its military industrial base. This reconstitution relies heavily on importing dual-use components, such as machine tools, drone parts, and marine engines, through alternative routes like Pakistan or China. To counter this threat, the report advises that policymakers must extend sanctions mechanisms—particularly 'no reexport' clauses—and proactively engage third countries with direct access to Iran. Furthermore, monitoring allied firms dealing with key suppliers in China and Turkey is crucial to slowing down and raising the cost of necessary procurements.
India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that while the Indus Waters Treaty is currently strained by geopolitical tensions and climate change, re-engaging on shared water resources is critical for achieving lasting peace between India and Pakistan. The treaty's stability is threatened by rapid glacial retreat, mounting water demand, and the politicization of resource management. Drawing lessons from global water governance successes, the report advises that international actors must elevate water management from a technical issue to a core pillar of diplomacy, providing technical assistance to stabilize the region and build confidence.
中文摘要
《查塔姆館》的分析指出，儘管《印度河水條約》目前受到地緣政治緊張局勢和氣候變遷的壓力，但重新協作共享水資源對於實現印度和巴基斯坦之間的持久和平至關重要。該條約的穩定性面臨快速冰川退縮、水資源需求激增，以及資源管理政治化的多重威脅。報告建議，應從全球水治理的成功經驗中汲取教訓，國際參與者必須將水資源管理從單純的技術議題提升為外交的核心支柱，藉此提供技術援助以穩定該地區並建立互信。
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