The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
How the Iran war is reshaping Saudi strategy: From Hormuz and Houthis to the UAE’s OPEC exit
English Summary
The ongoing instability stemming from the Iran conflict and the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz are forcing Saudi Arabia to fundamentally reassess its long-term economic strategy. Recognizing the existential threat posed by potential chokepoint closures, the Kingdom is pivoting its economic geography and infrastructure development away from the Gulf and toward the Red Sea. This strategic shift aims to reduce dependence on Hormuz and establish Saudi Arabia as a major regional logistics hub. However, this westward reorientation introduces new maritime security risks from the Houthis, making regional stability and infrastructure investment critical to the success of Vision 2030.
中文摘要
源自伊朗衝突的持續不穩定局勢以及霍爾木茲海峽的脆弱性，正迫使沙烏地阿拉伯根本性地重新評估其長期經濟戰略。為應對潛在關鍵咽喉點關閉所帶來的生存威脅，該國正將其經濟地理和基礎設施發展重心，從波斯灣轉向紅海。這一戰略轉向旨在降低對霍爾木茲海峽的依賴，並確立沙烏地阿拉伯作為主要的區域物流樞紐。然而，這種向西的重新定位也引發了來自胡塞人的新的海上安全風險，使得區域穩定和基礎設施投資對於「2030年願景」的成功至關重要。
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