The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
US-Israel war on Iran: What next for Lebanon?
English Summary
Chatham House's analysis finds that the escalating US-Israel war on Iran is significantly intensifying the conflict in Lebanon, with Israeli military actions already causing substantial casualties and displacement. The report highlights the potential for an Israeli military occupation of southern Lebanon, severely limiting the Lebanese government's response options and exacerbating internal tensions regarding Hezbollah's role. Experts suggest the conflict is unlikely to subside soon and will require substantial support for Lebanon's recovery. This underscores the urgent need for de-escalation efforts and humanitarian assistance to mitigate the crisis.
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