The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
The AU summit is an opportunity for decisive action to end the war in Sudan
English Summary
Chatham House argues that the African Union’s handling of Sudan has become a major leadership failure and that the February 2026 AU summit is a narrow chance to reset strategy before state fragmentation becomes irreversible. It cites the scale of the crisis (about two-thirds of 53 million people needing aid, 13.6 million displaced, and nearly half facing severe food insecurity) and shows how AU inconsistency and weak enforcement have reduced leverage over both the SAF and RSF. The paper also highlights a fragmented mediation landscape, with the US-led Quad, AU-led Quintet, and AU internal mechanisms pulling in different directions while key regional actors are widely perceived as biased. For policy, it recommends the AU reassert primacy, enforce norm-consistent neutrality, and link ceasefire/humanitarian negotiations to a unified AU-led political process to increase pressure on the warring parties and limit wider regional spillover.
中文摘要
研究指出，非洲聯盟對蘇丹危機的處理已構成重大領導失誤，而2026年2月的非盟峰會是在國家碎片化走向不可逆之前重設整體戰略的狹窄機會。報告援引危機規模：在5,300萬人口中，約三分之二需要人道援助，1,360萬人流離失所，且近半人口面臨嚴重糧食不安全。報告並顯示，非盟政策不一致與執行乏力，已削弱其對蘇丹武裝部隊（SAF）與快速支援部隊（RSF）雙方的槓桿力。論文亦指出調停格局碎片化：美國主導的四方機制、非盟主導的五方機制及非盟內部機制彼此方向分歧，而關鍵區域行為體普遍被視為帶有偏向。政策上，報告建議非盟重申主導地位、落實符合規範的一致中立，並將停火與人道談判連結至統一的非盟主導政治進程，以提高對交戰各方的壓力並抑制更廣泛的區域外溢風險。
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