ThinkTankWeekly

Hormuz crisis could lead to constructive dialogue between ASEAN and China in the South China Sea

Chatham House | 2026-05-18 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade

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English Summary

The energy crisis stemming from the Middle East is creating a strategic opening for ASEAN nations, particularly the Philippines, to re-engage with China on joint oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea. This economic necessity provides a critical incentive for Beijing to cooperate on regional stability, allowing the Philippines to leverage its ASEAN chairmanship and growing US alliance to push for a binding South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC). Policymakers should view this window of dialogue as a unique opportunity to advance international law (UNCLOS) and transform temporary energy cooperation into permanent maritime security agreements, thereby mitigating great power competition risks.

中文摘要

源自中東的能源危機為東盟國家,特別是菲律賓,提供了一個戰略窗口,使其能夠在南海與中國就共同油氣勘探重新建立合作。這種經濟上的必要性,為北京提供了合作維持區域穩定的關鍵誘因,使菲律賓能夠利用其東盟主席地位和日益穩固的美國聯盟,推動建立具有約束力的南海行為準則(CoC)。政策制定者應將這一對話窗口視為一個獨特的機會,藉此推進國際法(《聯合國海洋法公約》),並將臨時的能源合作轉化為永久的海域安全協議,從而減緩大國競爭帶來的風險。

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