The article argues that modern conflicts are increasingly defined by attrition, driven by three strategic gaps: the difference between nominal military power and usable capacity; the difficulty of achieving breakthroughs in a technologically advanced battlefield; and the detachment of military means from clear political objectives. Evidence from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrates that sustained logistics, rapid technological adaptation, and proxy networks are now more decisive than sheer military size. For policymakers, this implies a strategic shift away from seeking short, decisive victories toward preparing for prolonged, high-cost engagements, requiring a focus on sustainable supply chains and defining concrete, attainable political end-states.
After three years of war, Sudan’s civilians need stronger support
English Summary
The conflict in Sudan is entrenched, with military efforts by the SAF and RSF showing no sign of resolution, while regional competition further complicates diplomatic efforts. Despite various international initiatives (Quad, Quintet), progress is hampered by a lack of coordination and the focus on military gains rather than civilian needs. The analysis argues that the only viable path forward is establishing a credible, inclusive, and civilian-led political process. Therefore, international policy must shift away from military intervention and instead focus on coordinating all mediating bodies under a single umbrella to support a non-aligned political transition.
中文摘要
蘇丹的衝突根深蒂固，蘇丹準軍事部隊（SAF）和快速支援部隊（RSF）的軍事行動均未見解決跡象，而區域競爭進一步複雜化了外交努力。儘管有諸多國際倡議（如四方、五方），但由於缺乏協調和過度關注軍事成果而非平民需求，導致進展受阻。本分析認為，唯一可行的前進道路是建立一個可信、包容且由平民主導的政治進程。因此，國際政策必須從軍事干預轉移，轉而專注於在一個統一的框架下協調所有調解機構，以支持一個非結盟的政治過渡。
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