The article argues that the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity, established by the perceived invincibility demonstrated during the Gulf War, has ended. This decline is driven by globalization and technological diffusion, which have democratized advanced military capabilities, allowing regional actors to challenge major powers. Consequently, policymakers must prepare for a more volatile international order marked by frequent crises, heightened costs for securing global trade chokepoints, and reduced predictability from American power. The new rules dictate that great powers can no longer effortlessly impose their will through force.
After three years of war, Sudan’s civilians need stronger support
English Summary
The conflict in Sudan is entrenched, with military efforts by the SAF and RSF showing no sign of resolution, while regional competition further complicates diplomatic efforts. Despite various international initiatives (Quad, Quintet), progress is hampered by a lack of coordination and the focus on military gains rather than civilian needs. The analysis argues that the only viable path forward is establishing a credible, inclusive, and civilian-led political process. Therefore, international policy must shift away from military intervention and instead focus on coordinating all mediating bodies under a single umbrella to support a non-aligned political transition.
中文摘要
蘇丹的衝突根深蒂固，蘇丹準軍事部隊（SAF）和快速支援部隊（RSF）的軍事行動均未見解決跡象，而區域競爭進一步複雜化了外交努力。儘管有諸多國際倡議（如四方、五方），但由於缺乏協調和過度關注軍事成果而非平民需求，導致進展受阻。本分析認為，唯一可行的前進道路是建立一個可信、包容且由平民主導的政治進程。因此，國際政策必須從軍事干預轉移，轉而專注於在一個統一的框架下協調所有調解機構，以支持一個非結盟的政治過渡。
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